Could export opportunities lead to 1.1 MMT in green hydrogen demand in India?

New Delhi, June 19 (NationPress) India has set an ambitious target of achieving 5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030. However, a recent report emphasizes that stimulating green hydrogen demand on a large scale is crucial for realizing this goal, noting that export opportunities could generate up to 1.1 MMT in demand.

The joint report from Bain & Company, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) warns that this potential may go untapped without a corresponding increase in demand.

It outlines a strategic framework for how India can foster significant demand for green hydrogen and bring its vision to fruition. Key elements include targeted policy measures, strategic sector choices, and aligning exports to create a strong domestic and international market.

The report indicates that integrating green hydrogen into existing industrial operations such as oil refining, fertilizer manufacturing, and piped natural gas (PNG) systems could together generate as much as 3 MMT of demand by 2030.

Globally, the export of green hydrogen, ammonia, and green steel could add another 1.1 MMT to demand, while government procurement of green steel for infrastructure projects could unlock an additional 0.6 MMT.

Even modest blending ratios of green hydrogen—10% in refining and 20% in fertilizers—can be achieved with minimal cost increases, as noted in the report.

As production expenses continue to decrease, these blending percentages could be increased further, leading to higher demand without burdening end users.

The report also points to opportunities in specialized sectors such as chemicals, glass, and ceramics.

These sectors already utilize hydrogen extensively, and small-scale transitions to green hydrogen—especially for smaller entities that incur higher costs for grey hydrogen—could stimulate up to 0.07 MMT in additional demand by 2030.

Another significant recommendation is the utilization of public procurement. By mandating the inclusion of green steel in government initiatives like bridges, housing, and railways, the government can serve as a key customer and create sustained demand.

India’s advancements in renewable energy and competitively low production costs position it well to meet global demand.

If India captures just 5-7.5% of the green hydrogen import requirements from markets such as the EU and South Korea, it could yield an extra 0.8-1.1 MMT in demand.

Exporting green steel, particularly to the EU under its new carbon tax regulations, could contribute another 0.13-0.18 MMT.

Industry leaders have welcomed the report’s insights. Sumant Sinha, Chairman of the CII Energy Transition and Hydrogen Council, described it as a “playbook” for converting India’s green hydrogen aspirations into actionable steps.

Vineet Mittal, Co-chairman of the Council, highlighted the necessity for long-term offtake agreements, affordable financing, and optimizing input costs to promote widespread adoption.

Sachin Kotak from Bain & Company emphasized that while the supply chain is rapidly expanding, demand-side initiatives like blending, public procurement, and export strategies are vital to meet the 2030 targets.