Is a Military Agreement Between Bangladesh and Pakistan on the Horizon?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Bangladesh is formalizing a military agreement with Pakistan.
- The agreement may include nuclear capabilities.
- Indian agencies are closely monitoring developments.
- The agreement aims to mirror the one between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
- Regional security dynamics could shift significantly.
New Delhi, Dec 23 (NationPress) Bangladesh is actively working on establishing a military agreement with Pakistan, mirroring the pact that Islamabad entered into with Saudi Arabia.
Since Muhammad Yunus took charge as caretaker of the interim government in Bangladesh, the relations between the two nations have significantly deteriorated. Dhaka has persistently sought to distance itself from India while edging closer to Islamabad, even at the risk of allowing the ISI to use Bangladesh as a haven for extremists and militants.
Indian intelligence agencies are closely monitoring these developments as Bangladesh and Pakistan prepare to formalize a military agreement. An official noted that if this deal proceeds, military collaboration between the two countries would transform into a formal institutional arrangement.
This would entail conducting joint military exercises and sharing intelligence. Pakistan has even hinted at the availability of nuclear capabilities, although Saudi officials have been vague in their replies.
Officials suggest that Pakistan might extend similar exceptions to Bangladesh, and there is a strong likelihood that Dhaka could accept this offer. This prospect raises serious security concerns for India.
Since the ousting of Sheikh Hasina following a massive uprising last August, there has been a notable shift in the bilateral relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh. The two nations are now engaged in discussions to establish a Mutual Defence Agreement, with a joint mechanism set in place to finalize the draft.
Officials anticipate that the agreement could be finalized before the upcoming elections in February. The Bangladesh Army is particularly eager to see this agreement through, pushing for its realization. Once finalized, military interactions between both countries are expected to increase, along with strategic cooperation.
In the past eight months, numerous discussions have taken place between senior military officials from both countries. Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are keen on replicating the agreement made between Saudi Arabia and Islamabad.
Military officers from the Army, Navy, and Air Force of both nations have visited each other's territories on multiple occasions. According to insiders, the Bangladesh Army is especially enthusiastic about advancing this deal. Currently, several military memorandums of understanding (MoUs) exist that cover training, professional exchanges, and capacity-building initiatives.
Initially, the plan was to prepare the final draft and sign the agreement after the Bangladesh elections; however, plans appear to have shifted. For the ISI, it is crucial that Yunus or Jamaat-e-Islami remain in control. The scenario would become complicated if the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) were to gain power post-elections, as the BNP has shown a tendency to lean more towards India in recent months. If the BNP wins, the deal may not proceed, and India could exert its influence.
Another official pointed out that this explains the ongoing attempts to incite violence in Bangladesh, which would lead to election delays. This delay would provide both nations adequate time to advance the agreement. Current opinion polls indicate a narrow lead for the BNP over Jamaat. Both countries are likely to assess election trends before moving forward. However, information from Indian agencies suggests that both Dhaka and Islamabad aim to finalize this deal before the elections occur.