Bulgaria presidential runoff 2026: Iotova leads with 52.5% in exit polls
Synopsis
Exit polls from two agencies give Bulgaria's incumbent President Iliana Iotova a lead of around 8-9 points over challenger Andrey Gurov in Sunday's runoff. If confirmed, it would be her first full presidential term — she stepped up only after Rumen Radev's mid-term resignation in January 2026, and this vote is effectively a public verdict on her caretaker presidency.
Key Takeaways
Iliana Iotova leads Sunday's Bulgarian presidential runoff with 52.5% per Alpha Research exit polls and 51.1% per Myara Sociology Agency .
Challenger Andrey Gurov is projected at 43.4% (Alpha Research) and 44.6% (Myara).
Official results are expected no later than Wednesday, 5 November 2026 .
Iotova topped the first round on 25 October with 34.76% ; Gurov placed second with 31.95% among 27 candidate pairs.
Iotova became president after Rumen Radev resigned in January 2026 ; her current term expires at the end of January 2027 .
Nearly 6.6 million voters were eligible to cast ballots in the runoff.
Bulgarian incumbent President Iliana Iotova is on course to win Sunday's presidential runoff, according to exit polls released on Bulgarian National TV on 2 November 2026. Two separate polling agencies placed Iotova ahead of challenger Andrey Gurov, the former caretaker Prime Minister, by margins ranging from 8 to 9 percentage points.
What the Exit Polls Show
Pollster Alpha Research projected Iotova at 52.5% against Gurov's 43.4%, with 4.1% opting for 'I don't support anyone.' Myara Sociology Agency offered a slightly narrower gap, forecasting 51.1% for Iotova and 44.6% for Gurov, with 4.3% rejecting both candidates. Official results are expected no later than Wednesday. Under the Bulgarian Constitution, the candidate receiving the most votes wins outright.
Who Is Iliana Iotova
Iotova, 62, has had a long career in Bulgarian public life. She was elected vice president twice — in 2016 and 2021 — serving alongside then President Rumen Radev. Following Radev's resignation in January 2026, she succeeded him as head of state in accordance with the country's Constitution. Before her vice-presidential terms, she served on the National Council of the Bulgarian Socialist Party from 2000 to 2016, and held seats in both the Bulgarian National Assembly and the European Parliament. Her current term expires at the end of January 2027. She is running with Kiril Valchev as her vice-presidential candidate.
Who Is Andrey Gurov
Gurov is an adjunct professor of finance at the American University in Bulgaria and a former caretaker Prime Minister. He is contesting the presidency alongside running mate Georgi Kandev. The Gurov-Kandev ticket is backed by the parties We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria.
How the Contest Reached the Runoff
The Iotova-Valchev ticket, supported by the ruling Progressive Bulgaria party and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, topped the first round on 25 October with 34.76% of the vote. The Gurov-Kandev pair came second among 27 candidate pairs with 31.95%, forcing a runoff. Bulgaria elects its president directly by popular vote for a five-year term, and nearly 6.6 million voters were eligible to participate in Sunday's second round.
What Happens Next
With exit polls pointing to an Iotova victory, attention now shifts to the official count and what her second full term — the first as head of state in her own right — would mean for Bulgarian domestic politics and its EU and NATO alignments. The official results are due no later than Wednesday, 5 November 2026.
Point of View
Which gave her incumbency without a direct popular mandate. A confirmed first-round-to-runoff conversion with 52%-plus would give her a cleaner democratic legitimacy than she currently holds. The 4%-plus 'I don't support anyone' bloc in both polls is worth watching: in a polarised EU-NATO vs. sceptic axis that has defined Central-Eastern European politics, it signals a non-trivial share of Bulgarians dissatisfied with both the pro-EU and the challenger camp. That bloc, not the headline margin, is the long-term political story.
NationPress
2 Nov 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Bulgaria presidential runoff on 2 November 2026?
Exit polls announced on Bulgarian National TV indicate that incumbent President Iliana Iotova won the runoff, with projections of 52.5% (Alpha Research) and 51.1% (Myara Sociology Agency). Official results are due no later than Wednesday, 5 November 2026.
Who was Iotova's challenger in the runoff?
Her challenger was Andrey Gurov, a former caretaker Prime Minister and adjunct professor of finance at the American University in Bulgaria, running with Georgi Kandev as his vice-presidential pick. Gurov was backed by the We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria parties.
How did Iotova become Bulgaria's president?
Iotova became president in January 2026 after then-President Rumen Radev resigned, with the Constitution mandating that the vice president succeed him. She had previously served as vice president twice, in 2016 and 2021.
When will official Bulgarian election results be announced?
Official results from Sunday's presidential runoff are expected to be released no later than Wednesday, 5 November 2026, per the Bulgarian electoral process.
What was the result of the first round of Bulgaria's presidential election?
In the first round on 25 October, the Iotova-Valchev ticket led with 34.76% of the vote, followed by Gurov-Kandev at 31.95% among 27 candidate pairs, triggering the runoff.
