Bulgarian incumbent President Iliana Iotova has emerged ahead in the country's presidential election on 26 October 2026, but fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid a runoff, according to exit polls released on Bulgarian National TV. Official results are expected no later than Tuesday evening, with a second-round vote scheduled for the following Sunday.

What the Exit Polls Show

According to exit poll data from Alpha Research, Iotova secured 35.3% of valid votes, while figures from Myara Sociology Agency placed her at 35.2%. Her closest rival, former Bulgarian caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gurov, trailed with 32.4% per Alpha Research and 32.2% per Myara — placing him firmly in contention for the runoff.

The Legal Threshold and Why a Runoff Is Triggered

Under Bulgarian electoral law, a presidential candidate must win more than half of the valid ballots cast, provided that more than half of all eligible voters have participated. Voter turnout was reported at 22.3% and 21.2% respectively by the two polling agencies — well below the threshold required for a first-round victory. If no candidate achieves an outright majority, a second-round vote must be held within seven days between the top two candidates.

What the Candidates Said

Iotova, addressing reporters after the exit poll results, called abstention counterproductive. 'It is an illusion to think that by not voting, we can change anything in the country,' she said, expressing concern over the low turnout. She also struck a unifying note, warning against a return to political stagnation: 'In the coming years, we must change a great deal so as not to take Bulgaria back to the years of stagnation — a period during which we missed out on so many opportunities due to division and confrontation.'

Gurov, in a separate statement, called for a public debate with Iotova ahead of the runoff. 'We owe it to all Bulgarian citizens who voted today, but above all, we also owe it to those who stayed home — those who have yet to decide whether to vote and whom to support,' he said, appealing directly to undecided voters.

Stakes and Background

The Bulgarian president is elected for a five-year term. Iotova's current term expires at the end of January 2027, making this election a time-sensitive transition. The low turnout — hovering around 22% — is a continuing challenge for Bulgarian democracy, reflecting broader public disillusionment with the political class. Notably, this is not the first time a Bulgarian presidential race has extended to a runoff; the country's demanding electoral threshold has historically made first-round victories rare.

What Comes Next

With official results expected by Tuesday, both Iotova and Gurov will have little time to reposition before the runoff. The decisive second round will pit two candidates who are separated by just over 3 percentage points in exit polls, making the outcome far from certain. The candidate who can mobilise the roughly 78% of eligible voters who stayed home on Sunday could determine the direction of Bulgarian politics for the next five years.