China is systematically expanding its maritime footprint in contested waters through a layered mix of civilian, quasi-civilian, and dual-use instruments — moving well beyond the artificial islands and military installations that have dominated international attention, according to a report by the Rome-based Indo-Mediterranean Initiative CNKY. The findings suggest Beijing's regional strategy is entering a more sophisticated, harder-to-counter phase.

Beyond Island-Building: A Broader Strategy Emerges

According to the report, the conventional focus on warships, missiles, airstrips, and reclaimed islands has obscured a parallel and arguably more consequential shift in China's approach. Coast Guard patrols, scientific expeditions, communications infrastructure, fisheries management measures, and floating platforms are all cited as tools that collectively serve to entrench Chinese presence without triggering the scale of international backlash that accompanied earlier construction campaigns.

'Beijing is increasingly relying on a diverse set of civilian, quasi-civilian and dual-use instruments that expand its presence in contested waters without requiring a major military escalation,' the report stated.

The Scarborough Shoal Incident and What It Reveals

A key episode highlighted in the report is the appearance of a temporary Chinese platform near Scarborough Shoal in June, which drew significantly less international scrutiny than a naval exercise or coast guard confrontation would have. The report argues this low-profile deployment may be more strategically revealing than either of those higher-visibility events.

'The appearance of a temporary Chinese platform near Scarborough Shoal in June attracted far less attention than a naval exercise or a coast guard confrontation would have generated. Yet the episode may prove more revealing than either,' the report noted.

The floating platform is described as modest in size and ostensibly temporary — characteristics that allow China to establish a semi-permanent presence without committing to a major construction project. Such structures, the report observes, occupy an ambiguous space between civilian and governmental activity, making them easier to justify politically than military installations.

Antelope Reef and Continued Reclamation Activity

The report also flags extensive reclamation work at Antelope Reef as evidence that Beijing has not abandoned physical expansion — it is simply pursuing it more selectively. The assumption that China has already completed the physical foundations of its regional strategy with the island-building campaign is described as 'premature'.

'The extensive reclamation work reported at Antelope Reef demonstrates that Beijing remains willing to expand its footprint when strategic conditions are favourable,' the report said, adding that the current emphasis has shifted toward maintaining continuous presence through a wider ecosystem of infrastructure and services.

The Grey-Zone Challenge for Regional Actors

Many of the instruments China deploys operate in what the report terms a grey zone — vessels collecting scientific data while extending state presence, or coast guard ships performing law-enforcement functions while simultaneously advancing sovereignty claims. This dual-purpose nature makes them difficult to challenge through conventional deterrence frameworks.

'For regional actors, the challenge is that many of the tools involved fall outside traditional deterrence frameworks. Naval power remains relevant, but it is often ill-suited to respond to scientific surveys, fisheries regulations or temporary civilian infrastructure,' the report stressed.

The report concludes that the most significant development may ultimately be institutional rather than military: China's objective is not merely to maintain access to contested maritime areas but to normalise its role as the primary authority operating within them. This framing positions the contest less as a military standoff and more as a slow-moving competition over legitimacy and presence — one where the rules of engagement remain deeply contested.