Beijing's growing assertiveness in Taiwan's surrounding waters — including repeated incursions by dual-use research vessels near key naval installations — could be laying the groundwork for a future blockade, invasion, or forced annexation, according to a recent report. The United States and its allies are urged to treat these activities not as routine scientific exercises but as strategic rehearsals for establishing maritime dominance over the island.

The Tong Ji Vessel: Science or Surveillance?

At the centre of recent concerns is the Chinese research vessel Tong Ji, commissioned in 2025 and weighing approximately 2,000 tonnes. According to the report, the ship is outfitted with advanced sonar systems, acoustic sensors, and remotely operated vehicles capable of seabed mapping — capabilities with clear military applications in submarine warfare and anti-submarine operations.

The Tong Ji has reportedly been detected three times near Taiwan since May, each time operating in proximity to sensitive naval facilities. Its latest appearance was southwest of Liuqiu Island, near Kaohsiung — home to Taiwan's naval academy and its largest naval base. Taiwanese coastguard vessels shadowed the ship and issued formal warnings, but the vessel's repeated returns, the report argues, highlight Beijing's disregard for Taiwan's sovereignty.

'The recent sighting of the mainland Chinese research vessel Tong Ji near Taiwan's largest naval base is not an isolated incident but part of a calculated campaign to normalise China's presence around the island,' the report stated, adding that these missions are 'thinly veiled intelligence operations, laying the groundwork for future naval and submarine warfare.'

Wider Escalation Pattern Around Taiwan

The Tong Ji is not alone. The report notes that Beijing has increasingly deployed a combination of 'civilian' research ships, coastguard patrols, and military manoeuvres to encircle Taiwan. This pattern reportedly intensified after Japan and the Philippines announced plans in June to delineate their maritime boundaries east of Taiwan — a move Beijing condemned as an infringement on its sovereignty.

Shortly after that announcement, another Chinese vessel — Lan Hai 201 — conducted what was described as a fisheries survey east of Taiwan, fuelling suspicions of dual-use intelligence collection, according to the report.

'The CCP's strategy is unmistakable: use research ships, coastguard patrols, and military drills to encircle Taiwan, erode its autonomy, and prepare the ground for annexation,' the report stated.

The Dual-Use Strategy: Weaponising Civilian Platforms

The report argues that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is deliberately blurring the line between civilian and military operations. By embedding vessels equipped with advanced sensors near Taiwan's naval bases, Beijing reportedly collects critical data for submarine navigation, anti-submarine warfare, and seabed mapping — all of which are operationally essential for any future blockade or amphibious invasion scenario.

Notably, Beijing has never formally renounced the use of force to achieve what it terms 'reunification' with Taiwan. Critics argue this makes the pattern of dual-use deployments far more consequential than it might appear on the surface.

Strategic Implications for the US and Its Allies

The report urged Washington and its partners to recalibrate how they interpret Chinese maritime activity in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters. Rather than treating each vessel as an isolated diplomatic incident, the report recommends viewing the cumulative pattern as a coordinated campaign to erode Taiwan's strategic position over time.

If these activities go unchecked, the report warns, they could progressively create the conditions necessary for a blockade or forced annexation — not through a single dramatic military move, but through incremental normalisation of Chinese dominance in Taiwan's adjacent waters. How Taiwan, the US, and regional allies respond to each successive intrusion will likely shape the strategic calculus in the years ahead.