China's attempts to control the succession of the next Dalai Lama are destined to fail because the process is rooted in centuries of Tibetan Buddhist spiritual tradition — not party decree — posing a fundamental challenge to the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) authority, according to a report published in the European Times. The analysis, authored by Khedroob Thondup, the nephew of the current Dalai Lama, argues that Beijing's loss of influence over the succession unsettles Chinese authorities far more than they are willing to concede.

Why Beijing Cannot Control the Succession

'For decades, the Chinese Communist Party has tried to bend Tibetan Buddhism to its will. It has sought to control religious institutions, installed pliant clerics, and declared itself the arbiter of reincarnation. Yet the one succession it cannot control — the next Dalai Lama — has become a source of profound unease in Beijing,' Thondup wrote. He added that legitimacy in Tibetan Buddhism 'is not manufactured in Zhongnanhai but recognised in monasteries, diaspora communities, and the hearts of millions of believers worldwide.'

According to the report, reincarnation in Tibetan Buddhism is a spiritual recognition rooted in centuries of tradition, not a bureaucratic process. The current Dalai Lama has reportedly declared that he will not allow the succession to come under Chinese control — a statement the report describes as stripping Beijing of its primary leverage.

The Panchen Lama Precedent

Thondup drew a pointed parallel with the Panchen Lama controversy of 1995, when Beijing detained the boy recognised by the Dalai Lama as the 11th Panchen Lama and replaced him with a state-approved candidate. 'Thirty years later, the state-appointed Panchen Lama remains a figure of ceremonial utility but little spiritual authority beyond official Chinese structures. Tibetans reject him, the global Buddhist community ignores him, and the world remembers the child who vanished,' Thondup wrote. The report argues this episode 'haunts Beijing's plans for the Dalai Lama's succession.'

A Global Figure Beyond Beijing's Reach

The report underscores that the Dalai Lama is a global figure whose teachings resonate from Dharamsala to New York, from Tokyo to São Paulo. His successor, it argues, will likely be recognised by Buddhist communities worldwide — well beyond the reach of any Chinese regulatory framework or 'patriotic education' campaign. 'No decree, no regulation, no patriotic education campaign can compel Tibetans to accept a Party-approved Dalai Lama,' the report noted.

Strategic Costs of a Contested Succession

The report highlights that the CCP's anxiety is driven by what it calls the 'strategic costs of failure.' A contested succession, it argues, would publicly expose China's lack of control over Tibetan religion, weaken its soft power across Buddhist Asia, and invite criticism from multilateral forums. Beijing reportedly fears that the next Dalai Lama will become both a rallying point for Tibetans in exile and a symbol of resistance inside Tibet — while the international community may treat him as the authentic successor, leaving China's chosen candidate 'isolated and irrelevant.'

The report's conclusions come amid ongoing international scrutiny of China's policies in Tibet and its broader efforts to assert control over religious institutions within its borders.