The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and partner law enforcement agencies in the United States have arrested more than 20 individuals in a sweeping crackdown codenamed 'Operation Hard Ball', targeting the Lawrence Bishnoi transnational criminal network — and, crucially, found no evidence linking the Indian government to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The operation, announced on 9 July, has significant diplomatic implications for the long-strained relationship between India and Canada.

What Operation Hard Ball Found

The crackdown was aimed at dismantling key factions of the Bishnoi syndicate allegedly responsible for criminal activities spanning North America and India. Among the operation's most consequential findings: investigators concluded there was nothing to substantiate claims that Indian government agents had masterminded the murder of Nijjar, a Khalistani operative killed in Canada in 2023.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), which served as co-lead alongside the FBI, echoed this assessment. RCMP Deputy Commissioner Lisa Moreland, when asked directly about former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's allegations against Indian officials, confirmed that the probe is ongoing but that nothing has emerged to link the Indian government to the crimes.

US authorities have separately charged Lawrence Bishnoi and his aide Goldy Brar with ordering the hit on Nijjar — a finding that, according to officials, brings into serious question the direction of Canada's own 2024 investigation.

India's Position Vindicated, Officials Say

Indian officials have long maintained that Nijjar's killing was the outcome of gang rivalry, not a state-sanctioned operation. According to officials, the US findings validate that position and should put an end to what they described as a prolonged blame game.

In 2023, Trudeau publicly alleged that Indian authorities were involved in Nijjar's killing — a charge New Delhi categorically denied. The accusation triggered one of the worst diplomatic ruptures between the two countries in recent memory, resulting in the expulsion of senior diplomatic staff from both sides. Ottawa went so far as to name Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Verma as a person of interest in the Canadian probe.

Canada had also detained and charged four Indian nationals for Nijjar's killing in 2024. Officials now argue those charges must be reassessed in light of the US indictment of Bishnoi and Brar.

India-Canada Ties: A Cautious Thaw

The diplomatic climate has shifted considerably since Trudeau's departure. With Mark Carney assuming leadership in Canada, bilateral relations have warmed. Carney visited India earlier this year, and both governments pledged cooperation on several fronts — most notably on countering the Khalistan movement.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Canada later this year to sign a trade agreement, a development that would have been unthinkable at the height of the diplomatic crisis. Security agencies from both countries are reportedly working in tandem on intelligence sharing and tracking elements linked to the Khalistan movement.

The Khalistan Dimension

New Delhi has consistently argued that the Khalistan movement poses a security threat not only to India but to Canada itself — a position that Ottawa appears to have increasingly accepted. For years, Khalistani groups used Canadian soil to organise referendums and push for a separate nation carved out of Punjab, reportedly with backing from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

Canada has since introduced a series of measures to curb Khalistan-linked activities. Despite repeated attempts to revive the movement, it has reportedly failed to gain significant traction within Punjab. Officials said the deepening India-Canada security cooperation is expected to further weaken the movement's operational capacity.

What Comes Next

The RCMP has indicated the investigation remains ongoing, leaving open the possibility of further charges or findings. The US indictment of Bishnoi and Brar, however, has already reframed the central narrative — shifting focus from alleged state actors to a transnational criminal gang. How Canada reconciles its 2024 charges against four Indian nationals with the US findings is likely to be the next critical test of the still-fragile bilateral relationship.