US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on 14 August pushed back against commercial tracking data suggesting a sharp drop in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that between 8 million and 9 million barrels of crude are transiting the waterway each day — figures the administration says it verifies through direct coordination with vessels.

The Dispute Over Tracking Data

Commercial tracking firm Kpler had previously estimated that more than 100 vessels crossed the strait daily before the conflict with Iran. In the days preceding Wright's remarks, the firm recorded just 14 crossings on Monday and the same number on Tuesday, according to Fox News anchor Bret Baier, who interviewed the secretary.

Wright rejected those figures as an incomplete picture. 'Almost all of these ships have their AIS, their transponders are off. So they're dark, they're under escort,' he said. US authorities, he added, were receiving daily reports on traffic through both northern and southern routes through the strait.

What the Numbers Actually Show

Wright acknowledged that total energy flows from the Arabian Gulf region have fallen. He said roughly 14 to 15 million barrels a day are currently leaving the region, compared with 20 million barrels a day before the conflict — a shortfall of approximately 5 to 6 million barrels daily. However, he argued this gap is smaller than widely reported.

An additional 6 million barrels are being diverted through pipelines, he said, supplementing the Hormuz corridor. The strait links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, serving as the principal maritime outlet for energy exports from several Gulf producers.

Iran's Capacity to Disrupt 'Shrinking'

Baier pressed Wright on President Donald Trump's earlier assertion that the United States had total control over the strait. Wright did not repeat that claim. He said Iran was still creating difficulties for neighbouring countries and the global economy, but argued that Tehran's ability to disrupt shipping was diminishing as US escort operations expanded.

'They have sort of one card and it's shrinking in size,' Wright said.

US Petrol Prices and Refining Pressures

Wright also acknowledged that US petrol prices remain elevated at around $4 a gallon, and said the administration's goal was to bring them back towards $3, though he offered no specific timetable. 'We absolutely will get there. The question is just the timing of that,' he said.

The secretary noted that the more immediate supply constraint is now in refining capacity rather than crude availability. He also cited Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries as a contributing factor reducing global supplies of refined petroleum products and pushing prices higher.

Strategic Significance of the Strait

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, handling a significant share of global seaborne crude exports. The current conflict has placed renewed focus on the waterway's vulnerability and the limits of commercial maritime surveillance when vessels operate without transponders under military escort.

With US escort operations reportedly expanding, the coming weeks will test whether Washington's claimed visibility over the strait translates into sustained flow stability — and whether global energy markets accept that assurance.