The Third Eye: Ongoing Tensions in the Middle East Spark Global Alarm

New Delhi, March 16 (NationPress) The volatile Middle East continues to shape global geopolitics, particularly as recent events indicate a merging of political alliances and religious divisions, steering the world towards dangerous faith-based conflicts. A glaring example is the alliance between the fundamentalist Iran and the radicalized Hamas, united by their mutual opposition to the US.

Shia fundamentalism stands in direct ideological conflict with the US, as it denounces capitalism and even venerates poverty. In contrast, Sunni radicals recall the historical Wahhabi Jihad initiated in the 19th century against Western encroachment on 'Muslim lands'. Jihad is regarded as a fundamental duty of devout Muslims to make the ultimate sacrifice for the protection of Islam when it is perceived to be 'in peril'.

The perpetually unstable Middle East stands on the brink of disaster, as key players, including Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq, and even Israel, appear to prioritize their respective faiths over state policy. This trend has evidently undermined liberalism and hindered the region's progression toward democracy.

Democratization is essential for normalizing relations in the Middle East. A democratic framework necessitates that the state remains free from denominational influence while ensuring equal political rights for all communities.

An Islamic Republic may claim that the 'Quran is the best Constitution', as proposed by Hasan Al Banna, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria and Egypt in 1928, to counter pro-Soviet nationalist Arab leaders. However, the essence of democracy lies in granting equal political rights to religious minorities, even if there is no explicit commitment to secularism.

Banna asserted that an Islamic State could coexist in competition, rather than conflict, with the West, keeping the Muslim Brotherhood in alignment with the US. As recently as 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood was recognized by the US during the Arab Spring movement in Egypt.

Currently, Abdel Fattah el Sisi, a military figure, governs Egypt, and the US appears to tolerate his rule. It is undeniable that the Middle East must strive for democratic stability to prevent greater geopolitical disruption.

No substantial diplomatic initiatives have reportedly been undertaken to establish peace in the Middle East, likely due to the area's fragmentation caused by the resurgence of a new Cold War between the US-led West and the Russia-China alliance.

Iran has firmly aligned itself with Russia and China, while the Saudis remain in the US camp. Israel continues to receive unwavering support from President Donald Trump against Hamas, to the extent that the new US President insists on a swift Israeli action in Gaza.

Trump displayed a friendly attitude towards President Vladimir Putin, but tensions with China have escalated, perpetuating a Cold War-like divide between the two superpowers. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have shown interest in the Abraham Accords with Israel under US guidance, military hostilities involving Iran and its proxies against Israel have intensified.

The Shia-Sunni divide has traditionally strained Iran-Saudi relations, yet the Iran-Hamas alliance reflects a deeper antagonism between Islam and Zionism. This alliance was notably highlighted following the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas against Israel in 2023 and Iran’s subsequent effort to bring Hamas into its fold against the US-Israel coalition.

It is important to note that Hamas originally represented the Palestinian faction of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that was once favored by the US during the Cold War but became radicalized in response to perceived Israeli oppression in Gaza and the West Bank. Today, radical Sunni and Shia factions appear to be forming a united front against the Zionist power represented by Israel.

The conduct of the US-led 'war on terror', initiated after 9/11, first in Afghanistan and later in Iraq, paradoxically fueled the growth of Islamic radical forces across various regions of the Muslim world. While Al Qaeda sustained its presence in Afghanistan, forming offshoots like AQIS and AQI, the Islamic State emerged as a competing radical entity in this ongoing conflict.

Pakistan, which only joined the 'war on terror' under pressure from President George Bush, has historically accommodated radical Islamic factions. This was evident in Pakistan's role in establishing the Taliban Emirate in Kabul in 1996 and aiding in its resurgence in 2021.

Exploiting the situation, Pakistan positioned itself as a mediator during the Doha talks aimed at facilitating the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan. President Joe Biden was eager to extricate the US military from a complex situation, allowing Pakistan to maintain its favorable standing with America.

Pakistan, eager to ensure 'strategic depth' against India in Afghanistan, orchestrated a 'give and take' between the Taliban Emirate and China, which in turn facilitated the extension of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) into Afghanistan.

The Sino-Pak strategic alliance poses a significant security risk to India, increasing the nation's vulnerability to cross-border terrorist activities in J&K and beyond.

The Biden Administration appeared to maintain some distance regarding the Pak-Afghan dynamics, but President Trump is unlikely to tolerate any form of Islamic terrorism, judging by his past statements. This shared concern regarding China may sustain the strategic partnership between the US and India.

Syria exemplifies the interplay of political objectives and religious motivations in shaping events. The capture of Damascus by radical Islamic forces led to Bashar Al Assad seeking political asylum in Moscow on December 8, 2024, marking a significant turning point.

Bashar inherited a regime that his father, Hafez Al Assad, had established, which was opposed by the Muslim Brotherhood and favored by the US-led West. This allowed Bashar to easily secure support from Russia. Being an Alawite—a Shia sect—also garnered him backing from Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah. The existing antagonism between Iran and the US was already deeply rooted in political disagreements.

Bashar's regime facilitated Shia dominance while neglecting the Sunni majority, which gravitated toward the radical forces of Al Qaeda and ISIS. These groups opposed the regime, while a pro-US Islamic faction independently challenged the Syrian President during the ongoing civil war. Russian support for the Bashar regime led to missile strikes against ISIS positions in Syria and Iraq, prompting a retaliatory attack by ISIS-K—a Tajik-dominated offshoot—on a concert hall in Moscow in March 2024, resulting in 145 casualties.

Meanwhile, the US conducted airstrikes to curb ISIS expansion in northern Iraq and to protect Christians and Yazidis there, as Yazidis embrace both the Quran and the Bible. The Nusrat Front—an Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria with ties to ISIS—rebranded itself as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and became the dominant force in Damascus following Bashar's departure. Its leader, Abu Mohammad Al Mulani, changed his name to Al Sharaa and assumed the presidency of Syria.

The current landscape in the Syria-Iraq region is marred by violence driven by sectarian conflict, leading to prolonged instability.

At present, the ongoing conflict between the US and Israel, on one side, and Iran and its proxies on the other, remains the primary reason for the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. Iran’s terrorist proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza—have faced military setbacks, and Iran's ballistic missile capabilities have proven ineffective against Israel's air defense systems, which are supported by the US.

Once an ally, Syria is now governed by an anti-Iran coalition. Economic sanctions and low oil prices have further weakened Iran. How President Trump addresses the Iranian situation, potentially employing military pressure while offering a civil nuclear deal, remains to be seen as he attempts to steer Iran away from its authoritarian Ayatollah regime. The enduring pull of Shia fundamentalism on the Iranian populace may prove challenging to diminish.

Trump has issued stark warnings to Hamas, threatening dire consequences if they fail to release all hostages, and has vocally supported Israel's initiative to eradicate Hamas from Gaza. He has also sanctioned the first arrest of a Palestinian Green Card holder for leading a pro-Hamas protest at Columbia University in New York, cautioning that all such pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, and anti-American individuals will face deportation.

The notion of a Palestinian homeland may not resonate with the Jewish state, and in the absence of a viable two-state solution, peace may continue to elude the Middle East. The involvement of Arab nations allied with the US is crucial at this juncture in fostering the potential for peace in the region.

President Trump’s administration has a significant opportunity to alleviate tensions in the Middle East with the support of these countries. Notably, Jedda served as the venue for recent talks between US and Ukrainian delegations, culminating in an agreement on March 11 for Ukraine to observe a ceasefire for 30 days to pave the way for peace negotiations with Russia.

Meanwhile, the ongoing turmoil in West Asia—especially in Iran, Syria, and Gaza—serves as a poignant reminder for India to closely monitor developments in the Islamic world due to their potential impact on the nation’s internal security.

(The writer is a former Director of the Intelligence Bureau. Views are personal)