A sharp escalation in militant attacks across Pakistan is placing China's multi-billion-dollar stake in the country under mounting pressure, with the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — the flagship project of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — increasingly caught in the crossfire. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) launched over 100 attacks in Balochistan in the first six months of this year alone, with Chinese projects, Pakistani security forces, and foreign investment sites among the primary targets.

Scale of Chinese Investment at Risk

Since 2015, China has committed approximately USD 65 billion to Pakistan through CPEC, funding infrastructure development, energy generation, and mineral extraction projects, according to a report by US-based outlet Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan and Iran and provides strategic access to the Strait of Hormuz via Gwadar Port, sits at the geographical heart of this investment corridor.

The BLA and other Baloch militant groups allege that both Beijing and Islamabad are exploiting the province's vast natural resources while leaving it as Pakistan's most underdeveloped and economically deprived region — a grievance analysts describe as longstanding and deeply rooted.

CPEC Loses Momentum Amid Security Threats

Khalid Sultan, an Islamabad-based analyst quoted in the RFE/RL report, said the corridor has already lost considerable ground. 'CPEC has lost much of its initial momentum,' Sultan said, noting that the prevailing security situation makes it difficult to attract new foreign investments in Pakistan.

Sultan further warned that if conditions do not improve, Beijing is likely to slow the pace of new commitments, reassess existing projects, and demand stronger security guarantees before releasing additional resources. Analysts also cited political instability, bureaucratic delays, and economic obstacles as compounding factors behind the stalled implementation of several CPEC projects.

Analysts Warn Threat Could Escalate

Ayesha Siddiqa, a political scientist, author, and senior fellow at King's College London, said the security threat is unlikely to diminish and could in fact worsen. 'Given the current global geopolitical conditions, this threat is bound to increase,' she told RFE/RL, citing rising militant violence in Pakistan and the country's indirect involvement in the Middle East.

'There are multiple forces which are responsible for a continuous turmoil in the region and conditions are not going to be favourable,' Siddiqa added. Her assessment reflects a broader consensus among security analysts that the BLA's targeting of Chinese interests is no longer opportunistic but increasingly strategic.

Diplomatic Pressure Between Beijing and Islamabad

Security and counter-terrorism have reportedly featured prominently in recent high-level discussions between Chinese and Pakistani officials, reflecting the strain that persistent militant violence is placing on what has traditionally been described as an 'all-weather' alliance. The frequency of BLA attacks — targeting gas pipelines, electricity towers, railways, and now Chinese-linked projects — marks a qualitative shift in the insurgency's ambition and reach.

With geopolitical fault lines deepening and no clear resolution to Balochistan's underlying grievances in sight, the future trajectory of CPEC investment remains uncertain.