A US-led coalition of more than 30 steel-producing economies on 1 October 2026 adopted the 'Milwaukee Framework' — a coordinated plan to combat surging global steel overcapacity — at a meeting of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The framework calls for stronger trade measures, subsidy scrutiny, and joint action against tariff circumvention, as global surplus capacity is projected to climb from 601 million tonnes in 2024 to 745 million tonnes by 2028 — the highest level in a decade.

What the Milwaukee Framework Commits To

The agreement, reached under the chairmanship of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, requires participating economies to work through their national legal systems to reduce and eliminate market-distorting subsidies and government support that fuel persistent overcapacity. Members also reaffirmed their commitment to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules and a fair, rules-based trading system.

The framework mandates improvements to supply-chain transparency, including the collection of 'country of melt and pour' data — a measure designed to trace steel origin and identify circumvention of trade restrictions. It also envisages anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations, global safeguard probes, and coordinated monitoring to prevent displaced steel from entering member markets through back channels.

The China Question at the Centre of the Forum

While the ministerial statement referenced 'non-market policies and practices in some non-GFSEC economies,' China figures prominently in the forum's underlying data. According to OECD figures cited by GFSEC, a typical Chinese steel firm receives subsidies — through grants, tax concessions, and below-market borrowing — at a level approximately 15 times higher relative to its assets than a comparable firm elsewhere. China's steel subsidy rate has reportedly nearly doubled since 2019.

Chinese steel exports reached a record 131 million tonnes in 2025, a 153 per cent increase since 2020, according to the forum's documents. Chinese steelmakers are also reportedly adding 70 million tonnes of new capacity abroad, with a focus on Southeast Asia and Africa — a pattern members flagged as a potential circumvention route.

What the US Said

Greer framed the framework as an extension of the Trump administration's domestic steel revival. 'Under President Trump, the US steel industry is undergoing a renaissance on the strength of tariffs, trade deals, favorable tax treatment, improved energy policy, and the American entrepreneurial spirit,' he said. He added that if like-minded partners adopted similar policies, they could 'hold accountable those countries that are contributing to the problem of global overcapacity in steel.'

Greer said Washington would work with fellow members to implement the framework and 'restore a global level playing field for our workers and producers.'

Industry Response and Participating Economies

Kevin Dempsey, president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute, welcomed the agreement, calling it critical to tackling circumvention and evasion of steel trade measures. 'It is critical to the long-term health of the global steel sector that GFSEC Members follow through on the commitments made today in Milwaukee,' he said.

The Milwaukee meeting brought together representatives from more than 30 economies, including the United States, European Union, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The projected 2028 surplus of 745 million tonnes would exceed the combined current production of all GFSEC members by 319 million tonnes — underlining the scale of the challenge the framework now faces.

The durability of the Milwaukee Framework will depend on whether member economies translate its commitments into enforceable domestic action — and whether they can sustain consensus on naming, and penalising, the primary sources of excess supply.