US President Donald Trump on 8 October 2026 declared that American military involvement in the conflict with Iran would end very soon and predicted a sharp fall in global oil prices once the war concludes, while reaffirming that Tehran would never be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon.

What Trump Said at the Rally

Speaking at a Republican campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, Trump defended the American military operation against Iran and said his administration was resolute in eliminating the nuclear threat posed by Tehran. "And just as I promised, I am ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. They will never. They know that," he told supporters.

Trump signalled that US involvement was nearing its end. "And we'll be out of there soon, and you watch those oil prices come down like a rock and watch everything — everything else is coming down," he said, projecting confidence that energy markets would normalise quickly after the conflict.

Trump Blames Past Administrations for Inaction

The President argued that previous US administrations had repeatedly failed to confront Iran's nuclear ambitions and that direct military action had become unavoidable. "That should have been done by past presidents for many years. It should have been done, but nobody wanted to take it on," he said, framing the operation as a belated but necessary reckoning.

Trump acknowledged that the conflict had pushed oil prices higher, but maintained the increase was far smaller than many analysts had feared — noting that some had projected prices rising threefold, fourfold or even fivefold because of the military campaign.

White House Doubles Down on Timeline

At a separate White House event on the same day, Trump repeated his prediction. "Oil will drop like a rock as soon as we're finished with the war, which will be very soon. It's going to be very soon. One way or the other, we'll be finished with it," he said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the assessment, directly linking rising borrowing costs and inflation to the Middle East conflict. "What we are seeing is headline inflation is high because of the energy shock," Bessent said, adding that underlying inflation had already eased. He predicted: "Once we get on the other side of this Iran conflict, energy markets are going to be well supplied, and we will move down towards the Fed's target and mortgage rates and the 10-year will come back down."

Witkoff Diplomacy and the Nuclear Deal Question

Trump also referenced diplomatic activity involving his special envoy Steve Witkoff, who has reportedly been engaged in negotiations with Iranian interlocutors. "He's working on the Iran deal and doing very well," Trump said. However, the President signalled deep ambivalence about concluding any formal agreement. "I think the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop, and we definitely, they will never have a nuclear weapon," he said — a remark that underscored the gap between ongoing diplomatic contacts and Trump's stated preference for military resolution over a negotiated settlement.

Broader Market and Geopolitical Impact

The conflict has rattled global energy markets since it escalated, with oil prices surging on supply-disruption fears. Trump's remarks come amid growing pressure from allies and markets for a clear US exit strategy. This is not the first time the administration has flagged an imminent conclusion — similar signals in recent weeks have not yet translated into a ceasefire or formal agreement, making markets cautious about the latest timeline. How quickly oil prices respond will depend on the actual terms of any resolution and whether Iranian supply routes are restored.