The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned on Thursday, 28 May 2026 that global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, with Arctic warming anomalies projected to outpace the global mean by a significant margin. The findings come from the WMO's flagship climate outlook, 'Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-2035'.

Key Findings of the WMO Report

According to the report, annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The average for that five-year window will likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, though no single year is expected to breach the 2.0 degrees Celsius threshold.

Notably, at least one year between 2026 and 2030 is predicted to surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. The report was produced by Britain's Met Office and the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction, synthesising projections from 13 institutes worldwide.

El Nino in the Crosshairs

Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, pointed to a specific near-term risk: 'There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.' Predicted conditions in the central tropical Pacific indicate a tendency towards El Nino patterns in the next five years, with 2027 and 2028 identified as particularly susceptible periods.

Arctic Warming Outpaces the Globe

One of the report's starkest findings concerns the Arctic. Temperatures across the polar region over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters — running from November to March — are predicted to be 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average. That anomaly is more than three and a half times the global mean temperature anomaly over the same period, underscoring the accelerating pace of polar amplification.

What This Means for the Paris Agreement

The WMO was careful to contextualise the findings within the framework of the Paris Agreement. The 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius thresholds in the accord refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period — typically assessed over 20 years — rather than individual annual readings. Temporary exceedances of these levels in single years do not, by themselves, mean the Paris targets are permanently out of reach, the report clarified. However, the WMO noted that such temporary breaches will occur with increasing frequency as the underlying warming trend approaches these critical levels.

Context and What Comes Next

This comes amid a sustained run of record-setting temperatures globally, with 2024 already having been confirmed as the hottest year in recorded history. The WMO's decadal update reinforces what climate scientists have long argued: the window for stabilising warming below the Paris thresholds is narrowing. Governments and international bodies are expected to cite these projections in the lead-up to the next major UN climate conference. The report's regional precipitation and temperature forecasts will also inform national adaptation planning across vulnerable geographies, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.