Global temperatures set for near-record highs in next 5 years: WMO report
Synopsis
The WMO's latest five-year climate outlook puts a 91% probability on the world temporarily crossing the critical 1.5°C warming threshold — and an 86% chance that at least one year before 2030 will be hotter than 2024, itself the warmest on record. With an El Niño predicted for late 2026, the window for averting compounding climate extremes is narrowing fast.
Key Takeaways
The WMO report, produced by the UK Met Office , projects annual global temperatures between 1.3 and 1.9 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels from 2026 to 2030 .
There is a 91 per cent chance that global mean temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year in this period.
An 86 per cent probability exists that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
An El Niño is predicted for the end of 2026 , raising the likelihood that 2027 becomes the next record-breaking year.
Temporary annual exceedances of 1.5 degree Celsius do not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement , which measures long-term warming over roughly 20 years .
Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to remain consistently higher than the global mean throughout the forecast period.
Global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels through 2030, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), produced by the UK Met Office and released on Thursday, 28 May 2025. The findings project annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 ranging from 1.3 to 1.9 degree Celsius above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, with Arctic anomalies expected to remain disproportionately elevated.
Key Projections
According to the report, there is an 86 per cent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. In 2024, the global average surface temperature was approximately 1.55 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline — itself a temporary breach of the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.
The report further states that there is a 91 per cent chance that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year in the 2026–2030 window. Notably, the WMO clarifies that a temporary annual exceedance does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which defines the threshold in terms of long-term warming typically assessed over a 20-year period.
El Niño Factor
Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, pointed to an emerging climatic driver: 'There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.' Modelling of the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
Paris Agreement Context
Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations committed to holding long-term global average surface temperature increases well below 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to cap warming at 1.5 degree Celsius. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that sustained warming beyond 1.5 degree Celsius risks triggering increasingly severe climate impacts, more frequent extreme weather events, and a sharp narrowing of adaptation options for vulnerable populations.
Arctic and Regional Implications
The report specifically flags that Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to continue exceeding the global mean — a pattern with cascading consequences for sea ice extent, permafrost stability, and global weather systems. This amplified Arctic warming, a well-documented trend in climate science, can intensify extreme weather patterns far beyond the polar region, including heat waves and erratic monsoon behaviour in South Asia.
What Comes Next
The five-year outlook will inform upcoming international climate negotiations and national adaptation planning cycles. With the next major El Niño potentially peaking in 2027, policymakers face a narrowing window to strengthen both mitigation commitments and resilience infrastructure ahead of what the WMO projects could be the hottest years in recorded history.
Point of View
And the compounding effect of back-to-back El Niño-amplified peaks leaves less room for recovery. The 91% probability figure is not a distant scenario; it is near-certainty. For India, whose agricultural calendar and monsoon patterns are acutely sensitive to Pacific sea-surface temperatures, a 2027 El Niño peak is not an abstraction — it is a food security and disaster-preparedness variable that demands immediate planning, not post-event response.
NationPress
9 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the WMO report say about global temperatures between 2026 and 2030?
The WMO report projects that annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3 to 1.9 degree Celsius above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. There is a 91 per cent chance that at least one year in this period will temporarily exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.
Does breaching 1.5°C mean the Paris Agreement has failed?
No. The WMO clarifies that a temporary annual exceedance of 1.5 degree Celsius does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which defines the limit in terms of long-term warming assessed over approximately 20 years. A single record year, while alarming, is distinct from sustained long-term warming above that level.
Why is 2027 flagged as a potential record-breaking year?
Lead author Dr Leon Hermanson noted that an El Niño is predicted for the end of 2026, which historically amplifies global temperatures in the following year. Modelling of the Niño 3.4 region in the central tropical Pacific indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions particularly in 2027 and 2028.
What are the risks of exceeding 1.5 degree Celsius of warming?
The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming beyond 1.5 degree Celsius risks triggering increasingly severe climate change impacts, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and a significant reduction in adaptation options for vulnerable communities and ecosystems.
Why is Arctic warming highlighted separately in the report?
The report notes that Arctic temperature anomalies are expected to continue exceeding the global mean — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. This accelerated polar warming has downstream consequences for sea ice, permafrost, and global weather patterns, including the intensification of heat waves and disruption of monsoon systems.
