A 20 per cent electric vehicle (EV) adoption rate by 2030 could save India an import bill worth ₹1 lakh crore, up from the current 10 per cent penetration level, according to an SBI Research report released on Thursday, 2 July. The report links accelerating EV uptake directly to the West Asia crisis, which has reshaped Indian consumers' travel preferences and pushed registrations sharply higher.

EV Registrations Surge After West Asia Crisis

The onset of the US-Iran war on 28 February appears to have been a decisive inflection point for India's EV market. Monthly EV registrations, which averaged 1.3 lakh units through 2025, climbed to an average of 2.3 lakh units during the March–June 2026 period — an increase of 1 lakh registrations per month compared to the 2025 baseline. At this trajectory, the SBI Research report projects total EV registrations could cross the 25 lakh mark in 2026.

The share of pure EVs in overall vehicle registrations has also risen steeply — from under 2 per cent in 2024 to more than 8 per cent in 2026 to date. In several states, pure EV penetration has already crossed 10 per cent, according to the report.

Long-Term Projections: 4 Crore Vehicles by 2030

India registered 2.86 crore vehicles in 2025. SBI Research estimates that annual registrations will reach 4 crore vehicles by 2030, of which 20 per cent — or 80 lakh units — are projected to be EVs, up from 15.7 lakh in 2025. The report further estimates that during the 2027–2030 period, 35 lakh additional EVs are expected to replace petrol vehicles compared to a business-as-usual scenario.

Charging Infrastructure: The Critical Bottleneck

India currently has 29,151 charging stations, with Karnataka and Maharashtra together accounting for 35 per cent of the national total. The SBI Research report is unambiguous on the dependency: 'The success of EV will largely depend upon the availability of charging stations.'

This comes amid a significant policy push at the state level. Delhi's new EV policy plans to install 32,000 charging points within the next four years, a scale-up that the report singles out as commendable and potentially a model for other states.

Delhi's EV Policy: Incentives and Waivers

Delhi's framework offers a layered set of purchase incentives designed to accelerate adoption across vehicle categories. Two-wheeler buyers receive a cumulative incentive of ₹60,000 over the first three years. Three-wheeler buyers are eligible for a cumulative subsidy of ₹1,20,000. N1 commercial trucks qualify for a ₹1 lakh subsidy in the first year. All eligible EVs also benefit from a 100 per cent waiver on road tax and one-time registration fees.

As EV adoption accelerates and charging infrastructure expands, the next critical test will be whether state-level policies like Delhi's can be replicated at scale across India's largest vehicle markets.