Assam exit polls 2026: BJP set to win 85-100 seats, Congress trails
Synopsis
Exit polls project the BJP sweeping Assam with up to 100 seats — potentially 20–30 more than its 2021 tally — as Congress struggles to cross 35 and the AIUDF faces near-wipeout. If confirmed, it would be the BJP's strongest-ever performance in the state and a decisive second mandate for CM Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Key Takeaways
BJP projected to win 85–100 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly , per multiple exit polls.
Congress forecast to secure only 20–35 seats , well below the halfway mark.
Axis My India projects BJP at 88–100 ; Poll Diary at 86–121 ; Matrize at 85–95 .
BJP's projected lead over the Congress-led alliance in vote share stands at approximately 10 percentage points .
The collapse of AIUDF is cited as a key factor behind the BJP's commanding position.
In 2021 , BJP won 60 seats vs Congress's 29 , with a vote share gap of just 4 per cent .
Exit polls released on Wednesday project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweeping the Assam Assembly elections, set to return to power with a thumping majority for a second consecutive term under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Multiple pollsters have forecast the BJP winning between 85 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, while the Indian National Congress (INC) is projected to struggle well below the halfway mark.
What the Exit Polls Show
Three major pollsters have weighed in with broadly consistent projections. Axis My India forecasts the BJP winning 88–100 seats, with Congress trailing at a distant 24–36 seats — a gap the pollster described as evidence that Congress failed to mount a credible challenge. Poll Diary offers the widest range, projecting 86–121 seats for the BJP against a poor 15–25 seats for Congress. Matrize puts the BJP at 85–95 seats and Congress at 25–32 seats, despite the opposition running a high-octane campaign in the run-up to the polls.
Vote Share and Margin
In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to lead the Congress-led alliance by approximately 10 percentage points, according to exit poll aggregates. If the projections hold, the BJP is also expected to improve significantly on its own 2021 tally, potentially adding 20–30 seats over its previous performance. In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP won 60 seats while Congress secured 29, with the vote share gap between the two parties standing at roughly 4 per cent.
The AIUDF Factor
Most exit polls characterise the Assam contest as a broadly bipolar fight between the BJP and Congress. However, the projected decimation of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) — a key regional player — is cited as one of the primary drivers behind the BJP's decisive lead. The AIUDF's weakening is seen to have fragmented the opposition vote base, benefiting the ruling party disproportionately. This comes amid a broader pattern across North-East India where regional parties have steadily ceded ground to national formations in recent election cycles.
What This Means for Himanta Biswa Sarma
A victory of this magnitude would cement Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's position as the dominant political figure in Assam and arguably the most influential BJP leader in the North-East. Sarma took charge in 2021 after the BJP's first consecutive majority and has since reshaped the state's political landscape through a combination of welfare delivery and aggressive political consolidation. Notably, the projected seat tally — if confirmed by actual results — would represent the BJP's strongest-ever performance in the state. Actual results will be known once counting concludes.
Point of View
Not results — but the consistency across three independent pollsters pointing to a BJP sweep is hard to dismiss. The more telling number is the projected 10-point vote share gap: in a fragmented North-East electorate, that kind of margin typically signals structural dominance, not just incumbency advantage. The AIUDF's reported collapse is the understated story here — it suggests that the Muslim minority vote, once consolidated behind the AIUDF as a counterweight to the BJP, has either splintered or partially shifted, which would have profound implications for Assam's political arithmetic well beyond this election cycle. For Congress, a tally in the 20s would mark its weakest showing in decades in a state it once considered a stronghold.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the Assam exit polls predict for the BJP?
Exit polls project the BJP winning between 85 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, enough for a comfortable majority. Pollsters Axis My India, Poll Diary, and Matrize are broadly aligned on this forecast.
How is Congress expected to perform in the Assam 2026 elections?
Congress is projected to win between 20 and 35 seats, a distant second to the BJP. Despite running an active campaign, the party is seen failing to consolidate enough opposition votes to pose a serious challenge.
How does the BJP's projected tally compare to the 2021 Assam elections?
In 2021, the BJP won 60 seats against Congress's 29, with a vote share gap of about 4 per cent. Exit polls now project the BJP adding 20–30 seats over that tally, suggesting a significantly stronger mandate if the projections hold.
Why is the AIUDF's performance significant in the Assam elections?
The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has historically served as a key regional player and a counterweight to the BJP in Assam. Its projected decimation in these polls is cited as a major reason for the BJP's large lead, as it fragments the opposition vote base.
Who is the BJP's Chief Minister candidate for Assam?
Himanta Biswa Sarma is the BJP's incumbent Chief Minister and the face of the party's campaign in Assam. Exit polls projecting a second consecutive majority would cement his position as the dominant political figure in the state and across the North-East.
