Assam exit polls 2026: BJP projected to win 80+ seats, Himanta set for second term
Synopsis
Exit polls across agencies are projecting a dramatically expanded BJP majority in Assam — potentially 88 to 100 seats, up from 75 in 2021. If accurate, it would be Himanta Biswa Sarma's most emphatic mandate yet and signal a near-total collapse of Congress's opposition foothold in the state.
Key Takeaways
Exit polls on 29 April 2026 project the BJP winning 80+ seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly , well above the majority mark of 64 seats .
Axis My India forecast 88–100 seats for the BJP and 24–36 seats for the Congress.
Matrize projected 85–95 seats for the BJP and 25–32 seats for the Congress.
In 2021 , the BJP-led NDA won 75 seats ; the Congress-led bloc secured 50 seats .
The current Assam Legislative Assembly term ends on 20 May 2026 ; a new government must be formed before that date.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is projected to secure a second consecutive term if results align with forecasts.
Several exit poll surveys on Wednesday, 29 April 2026 projected a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Assam Assembly elections, with incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma widely forecast to return to power for a second consecutive term. Most pollsters placed the ruling party well above the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly.
What the Exit Polls Project
Axis My India gave the BJP its most commanding projection, estimating the party would win between 88 and 100 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) was placed in the range of 24 to 36 seats. A separate survey by Matrize projected 85 to 95 seats for the BJP and 25 to 32 seats for the Congress. Across agencies, the broad consensus places the BJP comfortably above 80 seats on its own, with other regional parties and independents sharing the remaining seats.
What It Would Mean for Himanta Biswa Sarma
If the projections hold, the result would mark a significant personal mandate for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who took charge following the 2021 Assam Assembly elections. A second consecutive term would consolidate his position as one of the BJP's most prominent regional leaders and further entrench the party's dominance in the politically significant northeastern state. Notably, Assam was among the states where the 2021 exit polls came closest to the final outcome, with most surveys accurately predicting the BJP's return within a narrow margin of error — lending the current projections added credibility.
How 2026 Compares to 2021
In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retained power by winning 75 seats. The Congress-led opposition bloc secured 50 seats, while one seat went to an Independent candidate. If the 2026 exit poll projections are accurate, the BJP would improve its tally by at least 10 to 25 seats, representing a substantially larger mandate than its previous win.
Timeline and What Comes Next
The tenure of the current Assam Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on 20 May 2026. The formation of a new government is expected before that date, following the official declaration of results. Political observers note that a strong BJP performance would also have implications for the broader Northeast, where the party has been steadily expanding its footprint over the past decade. All eyes are now on the final results to determine whether the ruling party can convert these projections into another emphatic mandate.
Point of View
Even after a decade out of power in the state, points to a deeper organisational crisis in the Northeast. The Himanta factor is real, but so is the Congress vacuum. What mainstream coverage underplays is that a BJP tally above 90 would effectively end competitive two-party politics in Assam for the foreseeable future — a shift with consequences for democratic accountability in the region.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the Assam 2026 exit polls predict?
Exit polls project the BJP winning more than 80 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 64. Axis My India forecasts 88–100 seats for the BJP and 24–36 for the Congress, while Matrize projects 85–95 seats for the BJP.
Is Himanta Biswa Sarma likely to return as Chief Minister of Assam?
According to exit poll projections, yes. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is widely forecast to secure a second consecutive term if the BJP wins the majority it is projected to achieve in the 2026 Assam Assembly elections.
How does the 2026 projection compare to the 2021 Assam election result?
In 2021, the BJP-led NDA won 75 seats, while the Congress-led bloc secured 50. The 2026 exit polls project a substantially larger BJP majority of 85–100 seats, suggesting the opposition's position has weakened further since the last election.
When will the Assam election results be declared?
The exact result declaration date has not been specified in available reports, but the new government must be formed before the current Assam Legislative Assembly's tenure ends on 20 May 2026.
How reliable are Assam exit polls historically?
Assam was among the states where 2021 exit polls came closest to the actual outcome, with most surveys accurately predicting the BJP's return within a narrow margin of error. This track record lends the current projections added weight, though exit polls remain estimates and not final results.
