BJP+ projected to win 102 seats in Assam: Exit poll
Synopsis
Today's Chanakya exit poll projects the BJP-led NDA at 102 seats in Assam's 126-member Assembly — a leap from the 75 it won in 2021 — while the Congress-led bloc is pegged at just 23. If accurate, it would be the BJP's strongest mandate in the northeastern state yet, and cement Himanta Biswa Sarma's grip on Assam politics.
Key Takeaways
Today's Chanakya exit poll projects BJP+ at 102 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly , with a margin of error of ± 9 seats .
Congress+ is projected to win 23 seats ; others are expected to account for around 1 seat .
BJP+ vote share is estimated at 50% ; Congress+ at 38% ; others at 12% .
In 2021 , the BJP-led NDA won 75 seats , compared to 50 for the Congress-led bloc.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is projected to return for a second consecutive term.
The current Assam Assembly's tenure ends on 20 May ; a new government must be formed before that date.
Fresh exit poll projections released on Thursday, 30 April have indicated a commanding advantage for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Assam Assembly elections, with the bloc projected to secure 102 seats in the 126-member Assembly — well above the majority mark of 64 seats. The figures carry a margin of error of plus or minus nine seats, according to the Today's Chanakya exit poll.
Seat and Vote Share Projections
The Congress-led Opposition alliance is projected to win 23 seats, also within a variation range of plus or minus nine seats, while other parties and Independents are expected to account for approximately one seat. In terms of vote share, the BJP+ bloc is projected to receive around 50 per cent of votes, with a possible fluctuation of three percentage points. The Congress-led bloc is estimated to secure 38 per cent, while other parties and Independents together may account for 12 per cent.
What the Projections Mean for the Assembly
If the trend holds, the BJP-led combine would comfortably retain power in Guwahati-based state politics. Most pollsters forecast the ruling party crossing the majority mark by a significant margin, with estimates suggesting the BJP could secure more than 80 seats on its own. The projections also point to incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma returning to power for a second consecutive term, having first taken charge following the 2021 Assembly polls.
How This Compares to 2021
In the 2021 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA had retained power by winning 75 seats. The Congress-led Opposition bloc had secured 50 seats, while one seat went to an Independent candidate. If the current projections materialise, it would represent a significantly stronger mandate than 2021 — an increase of roughly 27 seats for the BJP+ alliance. Notably, Assam was among the states where exit polls in 2021 came closest to the final outcome, lending some credibility to the current forecasts.
Factors and Caveats
Analysts cited organisational strength and welfare outreach as key drivers of the projected BJP+ consolidation. However, they also cautioned that campaign momentum, candidate selection, and regional factors could still influence the final outcome. The tenure of the present Assam Assembly is scheduled to end on 20 May, and the formation of a new government is expected before that date, following the declaration of results. All eyes now turn to the final tally to see whether the ruling alliance can convert these projections into another decisive mandate.
Point of View
But exit polls — even the more accurate ones — carry structural uncertainty, and Assam's diverse ethnic and regional pockets have historically defied uniform swing models. The more telling number is the projected vote share: 50% for BJP+ against 38% for Congress+ suggests the Opposition has failed to build a credible counter-narrative despite five years in power by the NDA. Himanta Biswa Sarma's hyper-active governance style and targeted welfare delivery appear to have neutralised traditional Congress strongholds. The real question is whether this is a durable realignment or a peak before demographic and economic pressures reshape the state's politics.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Assam exit poll project for BJP?
The Today's Chanakya exit poll projects the BJP-led NDA alliance at 102 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, with a margin of error of plus or minus nine seats. The BJP is also estimated to win more than 80 seats on its own.
How many seats has Congress been projected to win in Assam?
The Congress-led Opposition alliance is projected to win 23 seats, also within a variation range of plus or minus nine seats. This would be a sharp decline from the 50 seats the Congress-led bloc secured in the 2021 Assam elections.
Who is projected to become Chief Minister of Assam after these elections?
Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is projected to return for a second consecutive term if the exit poll projections hold. He first took charge as Assam Chief Minister after the 2021 Assembly polls.
When will the Assam election results be declared?
The exact result declaration date is pending, but the tenure of the current Assam Assembly ends on 20 May, and a new government is expected to be formed before that date.
How accurate were Assam exit polls in 2021?
Assam was among the states where exit polls in 2021 came closest to the final outcome, with most surveys accurately predicting the BJP's return to office within a narrow margin of error, lending some credibility to the current round of projections.
