Future Prospects for Syria: Analyzing What Lies Ahead for the Arab Nation and the Middle East

New Delhi, Dec 11 (NationPress) The rapid decline -- and subsequent escape -- of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has triggered celebration in some factions and concern in others, as it appears to have disrupted the political landscape and strategic considerations of the Middle East. Yet, a thorough examination of the history of this key Arab nation and others may indicate that the final verdict on what follows is still to come.

Both Israel and the US have hurriedly sought to claim responsibility for the end of the over six-decade reign of the Ba'ath Party. Meanwhile, Turkey is secretly celebrating, and the diminishing influence of Russia and Iran in this Arab heartland is being hailed.

Nonetheless, there are reports suggesting that Assad, who had been quietly relocating family members abroad, negotiated a deal with the rebels for a secure exit, considering the difficulties in maintaining control over a fragmenting and impoverished nation. With Russia engaged in Ukraine and Iran weakened by strikes on its regional proxies, both are perceived as less inclined to support Assad’s regime as they did previously. They may also be looking to foster connections with the new leaders -- Russia has secured assurances regarding its military bases in Syria, while both Moscow and Tehran might be waiting for the inherent contradictions in the situation to surface.

The Al Qaeda-affiliated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces, and other factions that might form a volatile Syrian coalition may find that ousting Assad was merely the first step. Take the SDF, which is mostly Kurdish -- a group that Turkey perceives as its primary enemy -- what will transpire when they come into closer proximity?

While Syria is largely Sunni, power has traditionally been held by the Alawite sect of Shia Muslims, from which the Assad family and its principal personnel originate. The nation also hosts significant populations of Kurd, Druze, Shia, and Arab Christians (divided into six major denominations).

Characterized as a tribal and fractured nation by former Saudi Crown Prince Faisal in the mid-1950s, Syria has endured at least eight military coups and a brief union with Egypt in its first quarter-century as an independent state following liberation from France in 1946. Stability, albeit with an authoritarian slant, emerged only after Air Force chief Hafez Al Assad took control in 1970, following his involvement in the coups of 1961, 1963, and 1966, with the exception of the failed Islamist uprising of the early 1980s.

Although Assad had prepared his eldest son Bassel to be his successor, his untimely death in a 1994 accident forced him to select his second son, Bashar, for the position. Bashar Al Assad took over from his father in 2000 and ruled smoothly until the Arab Spring reached Syria, igniting the Syrian Civil War in 2011. This period was challenging until the military interventions by Russia and Iran altered the course, allowing him to maintain power for nearly another decade until the rebels' resurgence at the end of 2024 marked a definitive conclusion.

While the Assads’ extended rule may have been tyrannical, its conclusion should be juxtaposed with the aftermath of the violent removal of other 'tyrants' in the Middle East, stretching from the arid plains of Iraq to the sandy expanses of Libya. Did the ousting of either Saddam Hussain of Iraq in 2003 or Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 fulfill the strategic objectives of their opponents or lead to better conditions for the nations?

The response is clear -- in Iraq, the long-oppressed Shia majority emerged, resulting in an alliance with neighboring Iran, which ignited a Sunni insurgency that took considerable time for the US and the local regime to suppress. Just as this was being managed, the threat of the Islamic State emerged -- which in some respects, surpassed Al Qaeda in brutality. While the US touts its success in countering and diminishing its strength, the contributions of Iran-backed Iraqi militias and strategist Gen Qassem Soleimani were also pivotal. In an unstable Syria, could either Al Qaeda or the IS regain their strength?

Israel, as a neighboring state, will also encounter repercussions, despite speculation about “common interests.” Additionally, the increasing influence of Turkey in a neighboring nation, especially with rising tensions between the two over Gaza, is not conducive to peace.

Conversely, the absence of Gaddafi's firm control has left Libya fractured and chaotic. More importantly for Europe, right across the Mediterranean, this has triggered a surge of refugees, straining coastal nations like Italy and Greece, and extending as far as the United Kingdom, fostering social and demographic tensions and bolstering the rise of nativist and populist movements gaining traction.

Remember the old adage about history repeating itself?

(Vikas Datta can be reached at vikas.d@ians.in)