As record heatwaves scorch Europe and demand for cooling surges worldwide, air-conditioning (AC) has moved from a household luxury to a geopolitical flashpoint — pitting climate goals against the survival needs of billions. India alone added roughly 50 million AC units between 2019 and 2024, equivalent to half of Europe's entire installed base, according to a recent report by The Economist. The numbers signal a profound shift in who controls the cooling economy — and who bears its consequences.

Europe's Cooling Crisis

The scale of Europe's unpreparedness came into sharp relief in early July, when temperatures in parts of the continent were set to breach 40 degrees Celsius. In Nanterre, a suburb of Paris, a crowd of desperate shoppers forced open the doors of a Lidl supermarket in a bid to purchase the last available portable AC unit. At a separate outlet nearby, two men reportedly came to blows over the same appliance.

Historically, Europe's mild summers, thick-walled older buildings, high electricity costs, and environmental concerns kept AC penetration low. According to analysis by Scienceinsights, Europeans also feel heat more acutely than South Asians because their infrastructure, physiology, and daily routines are not adapted to extreme temperatures — compounded by longer summer days, humidity, and building design. Despite this, the number of AC units across Europe has more than doubled since 1990, with cooling demand quadrupling — particularly in northern regions — according to a report by Euronews. A 2018 International Energy Agency (IEA) statement, drawing on 2016 data, confirmed the European Union had far fewer units than either China or the United States.

Running an AC in Europe reportedly costs two to three times more than in the US, owing to higher energy prices and taxes — a structural barrier that has slowed adoption even as the need grows.

India's AC Surge and What Comes Next

India's trajectory stands in stark contrast. The country added approximately 50 million AC units between 2019 and 2024 — about half of Europe's total installed base over that period, The Economist reported. The India Energy and Climate Centre (IECC) at the University of California, Berkeley, projects a further 130 million to 150 million units will be added over the coming decade.

This rapid expansion reflects both rising incomes and the intensifying heat that South Asia endures. Notably, it also places India at the centre of a global debate about who gets to cool down — and at what cost to the planet.

The Human Cost of Heat — and the Case for Cooling

The stakes are not abstract. Between 2000 and 2019, extreme heat killed nearly half a million people annually, according to the Lancet Countdown 2025 report. A separate Lancet study estimated that by the early 2020s, AC was preventing approximately 190,000 deaths each year among people aged 65 and older.

The COP30 climate summit in Brazil formally declared cooling technologies 'essential infrastructure', placing them alongside water and sanitation — a recognition of the lethal toll that unmitigated heat now exacts. Singapore's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, made a similar argument decades earlier: in 2009, he cited AC as among the most transformative inventions in history, crediting it with 'making development possible in the tropics.'

Children and pregnant women face disproportionate risk. A UNICEF analysis found that one in five children — around 466 million — now live in areas experiencing at least double the number of extremely hot days compared to six decades ago. Heat stress poses particular threats to foetal development and child health where cooling is unavailable.

The Paradox: Cooling That Warms the Planet

The dilemma at the heart of the AC debate is stark. Cooling already accounts for 4 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions, and demand is projected to triple by 2050. The very technology that shields populations from climate-driven heat also accelerates the warming that makes that heat more dangerous — a self-reinforcing cycle that The Economist warned could trap lower-income countries in particular.

Nations that cannot afford to invest in power grids and cooling infrastructure risk entering what the report described as a 'self-reinforcing spiral' — hotter temperatures reducing labour productivity and economic output, leaving less capital to build the very infrastructure needed to cope.

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) estimates that by 2030, heat stress will eliminate 2.2 per cent of the world's working hours — the equivalent of 80 million full-time jobs. The losses are expected to fall heaviest on agricultural workers in South Asia and West Africa.

What Comes Next

Resistance to mass AC adoption persists, centred on electricity demand spikes, the release of potent refrigerant greenhouse gases, and the worsening of urban heat islands. Policymakers face pressure to expand access to cooling while simultaneously decarbonising the grids that power it. As India's AC market accelerates and Europe scrambles to catch up, the geopolitics of who manufactures, finances, and regulates cooling technology will increasingly shape the global climate conversation.