India's Natural Gas Usage Set for 60% Surge by 2030: Study
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Synopsis
A study by the PNGRB indicates that India's natural gas consumption is expected to increase by almost 60% by 2030, driven by efforts to reduce oil imports and switch to cleaner fuels for various applications. The report outlines projected growth across multiple sectors, highlighting the role of LNG in long-haul transport.
Key Takeaways
- India’s natural gas consumption to rise by 60% by 2030.
- Natural gas share in primary energy basket to hit 15% by 2030.
- City Gas Distribution sector expected to drive 2.5 to 3.5 times growth.
- LNG projected to play a key role in long-haul transport.
- Doubling of LNG imports expected by 2030.
New Delhi, April 11 (NationPress) India's natural gas consumption is projected to surge by nearly 60% by 2030 as the nation aims to decrease reliance on oil imports and transition to cleaner fuels for vehicle operation, household cooking, and industrial applications, as per a study conducted by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB).
The report highlights the anticipated demand for natural gas across various sectors including fertiliser, power, refineries, petrochemical, and other industrial and commercial entities, households, as well as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for transportation, covering the energy landscape through 2030 and 2040.
According to the report, natural gas consumption is expected to grow from 188 million standard cubic metres per day in 2023-24 to 297 mmscmd by 2030 under the 'Good-to-Go' scenario, which assumes moderate growth based on existing trends. Consumption is expected to reach 496 mmscmd by 2040 under the same scenario.
In the 'Good to Best' scenario, which anticipates rapid advancements, favorable policy enactment, and increased investments, consumption could escalate to 365 mmscmd by 2030 and 630 mmscmd by 2040.
The government aims to elevate the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix to 15% by 2030, up from the current 6-6.5%. Natural gas is regarded as a bridge fuel as India moves away from polluting fossil fuels towards clean energy, striving to achieve its net-zero emissions goal by 2070.
The PNGRB has established gas infrastructure across 307 Geographical Areas throughout the nation, with the exception of islands, ensuring extensive access to natural gas across domestic, commercial, industrial, and transport sectors, the report indicates.
It is anticipated that the City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector will be a major growth engine, with consumption expected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 times by 2030 and 6 to 7 times from a base of 37 mmscmd in FY24, as per the report.
The growth in the Refinery and Petrochemical sectors, particularly with renewed emphasis on petrochemical integration, will provide an additional growth avenue. Consequently, the petrochemical sector is expected to significantly contribute, with the Petroleum Intensity Index projected to enhance by 15% by 2030 and 25% by 2040. Other sectors such as Power, Fertiliser, Iron, and Steel are predicted to grow at moderate rates.
LNG as a long-haul transportation fuel could be transformative, with the potential to substantially replace Diesel. LNG trucking is forecasted to gain traction post-2030, with the possibility of replicating China's success in reducing diesel reliance, the report states.
Currently, India's natural gas production satisfies merely around 50% of its demand. With demand anticipated to rise significantly by 2030 and 2040, reliance on LNG is expected to augment to bridge the demand-supply gap. This growth is projected to result in a doubling of LNG imports by 2030. The expected increase in global LNG availability post-2026 may provide more favorable prices for long-term LNG contracts, thereby facilitating consumption in the price-sensitive industrial and transport sectors, the report elaborated.
