Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is reportedly exploiting the ongoing civil unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) to accelerate infiltration attempts into Jammu and Kashmir, with security agencies estimating that approximately 300 militants are currently positioned at launchpads in Muzaffarabad and Rawalkot, according to officials. A high alert has been sounded along the entire Line of Control (LoC) as agencies brace for intensified cross-border pressure.

The PoK Unrest and the ISI Opportunity

Protests in PoK have shown no signs of abating, with demonstrators in Muzaffarabad and Rawalkot — located roughly 15 to 40 km from the Indian side of the LoC — accusing Pakistani security forces of alleged atrocities and shortages of food and medicines. Despite repeated crackdowns, the agitation has remained firm.

Intelligence officials say the ISI is now looking to weaponise this humanitarian strain. 'The ISI is looking to take advantage of the ongoing crisis and send its terrorists into Jammu and Kashmir,' an official said. The strategy, according to assessments, involves pressuring PoK residents living close to the LoC to create a humanitarian crisis that could stress India's border security mechanism — and potentially create gaps for infiltration.

Launchpads and the Lashkar Threat

Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) maintains launchpads at five locations in PoK — Muzaffarabad, Koti, Bhimber, Bagh, and Rawalkot. Officials say the ISI is expected to activate the Muzaffarabad and Rawalkot sites amid the current turmoil. An Intelligence Bureau official stated that around 300 terrorists are waiting at these two launchpads, and that even successfully slipping in 10 militants is considered a major operational win by the ISI.

The LeT's proxy outfit, The Resistance Front (TRF) — explicitly named in the National Investigation Agency (NIA) chargesheet in the Pahalgam attack — is reportedly keen to carry out a similar civilian-targeting strike. Officials note that such attacks are tactically preferred by the ISI because hardened military and security installations have been significantly fortified, making direct assaults far more difficult.

Tourism Sector in the Crosshairs

Following the Pahalgam terror attack, tourism in Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a sharp decline — a severe blow to the region's primary economic driver. Officials warn that the ISI has been mapping major tourist spots in J&K to plan fresh strikes against civilians. 'Targeting the tourism sector directly affects the livelihoods of thousands of people in Jammu and Kashmir. The ISI's objective is to create economic distress and discontent, hoping it will push some people back towards violence, stone-pelting and other activities aimed at disrupting peace and normalcy in the Union Territory,' an official said.

Why a Major Strike Matters to Pakistan

A successful attack in J&K would serve multiple strategic purposes for the ISI, according to officials. It would boost the morale of groups such as Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), aid recruitment — which has reportedly declined significantly in recent months — and act as a diversion from Pakistan's own mounting internal crises, including unrest in Balochistan and PoK itself.

Officials also noted that the Pahalgam attack last year triggered Operation Sindoor, which reportedly cost Pakistan heavily. Nevertheless, the ISI faces intense pressure from its proxies to demonstrate operational relevance. 'Hence, carrying out a big strike is important for the ISI,' an official said. Indian security agencies are maintaining close surveillance of all border areas as the situation in PoK continues to evolve.