Indian intelligence agencies have issued a high-alert warning ahead of a possible major provocation by Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC), with officials saying Islamabad may be planning an external escalation to deflect attention from deepening internal crises in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Balochistan. The warning was issued on 12 August as protests in PoK continued and unrest in Balochistan showed no signs of abating.

Intelligence Assessment and LoC Threat

An Intelligence Bureau (IB) official stated that India must remain on high alert, warning that Pakistan could be planning a significant provocation along the LoC. “The level of desperation is so high that neither Islamabad nor India should rule out the possibility of a provocation along the Line of Control,” the official said.

Separately, Pakistan is reportedly also stepping up operations in Jammu and Kashmir. Two recent back-to-back attacks in the region are being assessed as indicators that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is attempting to revive terror activities in the Valley.

Pakistan’s Military Deployments Near the Border

Adding to India’s concerns, Pakistan has reportedly deployed around 250 Chinese-made SH-15 155mm truck-mounted self-propelled howitzers across multiple sectors facing the Indian border. Locations near Sialkot, Gujranwala, and Jalalpur Jatan are among those where the artillery has been positioned. The mobile configuration enables rapid shoot-and-scoot operations with a range of approximately 30–40 km, according to officials.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs has stated that security agencies remain fully prepared to safeguard national security and counter any potential misadventure.

Internal Pressures on Islamabad and Army Chief Munir

Officials say Pakistan is in urgent need of a diversion as growing questions are being raised within the country over alleged atrocities against people in PoK and Balochistan. “Moreover, a quick diversion is also needed before the international community starts raising their voices on these issues,” one official said.

Another official pointed to mounting pressure on Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, whose handling of both regions has reportedly drawn criticism from within the establishment. “His role in ordering the atrocities and telling his forces and the government to not give into the demands of these people has come under question. As of now, Munir’s strategy in both regions has failed,” the official said. Munir is also said to be under pressure over the Imran Khan issue and the fallout from Operation Sindoor, in which Indian armed forces reportedly exposed the Pakistani establishment significantly.

ISI Activating Sleeper Cells and Propaganda Campaigns

Beyond the LoC threat, the ISI is reportedly attempting to activate existing sleeper cell modules inside India. Agencies have reportedly busted multiple modules linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed in recent weeks. The ISI’s propaganda wing has also been directed to amplify fake narratives against the Indian state, according to officials, who described these as coordinated attention-diverting tactics.

Officials note that while PoK and Balochistan have historically seen recurring unrest, the current escalation is significantly more acute, with Islamabad struggling to contain it and no immediate resolution visible. Security agencies have been cautioned not to take the propaganda campaigns or attempted terror strikes lightly, and India’s border and internal security apparatus is expected to remain on heightened alert in the coming weeks.