Karnataka's Agriculture Ministry on Monday, 18 May warned of a likely fertiliser shortage during the 2026 monsoon cropping season, citing a sharp drop in urea opening stocks and global supply disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis. The state's current urea opening stock stands at just 2.80 lakh metric tonnes — the lowest in four years and well below the 5.41 lakh metric tonnes recorded in 2024.

Opening Stock at Four-Year Low

The year-on-year decline in Karnataka's urea reserves is stark. Opening stocks were 3.91 lakh metric tonnes in 2023, 5.41 lakh metric tonnes in 2024, and 3.46 lakh metric tonnes in 2025. The current figure of 2.80 lakh metric tonnes represents a near-halving compared to last year's peak, leaving the state with a thinner buffer heading into the critical kharif sowing window.

Global Instability and Central Allocation Gaps

The Karnataka Agriculture Minister stated that instability at the global level has disrupted imports of fertilisers and key raw materials — including ammonia, liquefied natural gas, phosphoric acid, and sulphuric acid — due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. 'As a result, the supply of fertilisers during the 2026 monsoon season in the state is likely to be affected, leading to disruptions in fertiliser availability across Karnataka,' the Minister said.

Compounding the global supply crunch, the Minister pointed to a significant shortfall in Central government allocations. For the current monsoon season, the Centre has allocated a total of 30.05 lakh metric tonnes of various fertiliser grades — comprising 11.10 lakh metric tonnes of urea, 4.00 lakh metric tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP), 2.12 lakh metric tonnes of muriate of potash, 11.88 lakh metric tonnes of complex fertilisers, and 0.95 lakh metric tonnes of single super phosphate.

April and May Supply Shortfalls in Detail

The ground reality reveals a widening gap between demand and supply. In April, Karnataka demanded 4.02 lakh metric tonnes of various fertiliser grades but received only 2.54 lakh metric tonnes — a shortfall of 1.48 lakh metric tonnes. The deficit included 0.38 lakh metric tonnes of DAP and 0.14 lakh metric tonnes of urea.

In May so far, against a demand of 4.54 lakh metric tonnes, only 1.77 lakh metric tonnes have been supplied, leaving 2.77 lakh metric tonnes pending — including 0.65 lakh metric tonnes of urea and 0.78 lakh metric tonnes of DAP. Cumulatively, from April through mid-May, total demand stood at 8.57 lakh metric tonnes, of which only 4.31 lakh metric tonnes have been supplied, with 4.25 lakh metric tonnes still pending. The pending quantity includes 0.79 lakh metric tonnes of urea and 1.17 lakh metric tonnes of DAP.

State Response and Mitigation Measures

On 16 April, a high-level meeting chaired by the Chief Minister was convened with Deputy Commissioners and Chief Executive Officers, at which instructions were issued for effective fertiliser management across districts. The Minister clarified that, as of now, there is no immediate shortage of any fertiliser type in the state — the warning pertains to the approaching monsoon season.

Longer-term, the state is pushing farmers toward alternative inputs: bio-fertilisers, organic fertilisers, green manure, crop residue utilisation, nano urea, nano DAP, 100% water-soluble fertilisers, and micronutrients. Awareness campaigns are being rolled out to reduce dependence on conventional urea and DAP ahead of the kharif season. How quickly farmers adopt these alternatives — and whether Central supplies catch up — will determine whether Karnataka's monsoon agriculture faces a genuine crisis.