MOSPI refutes 2.6% GDP growth claim, cites new 2022-23 base year series
Synopsis
India's statistics ministry has pushed back hard against claims that Q1 GDP data was massaged to flatter growth numbers. The ₹86-lakh-crore-to-₹80-lakh-crore shift, it says, is a methodological consequence of switching to a new 2022-23 base year — not a backdoor revision. The clarification matters because it goes to the heart of how credible India's national accounts are perceived to be.
Key Takeaways
MOSPI rejected claims that Q1 2025-26 GDP was deliberately revised down from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore to inflate current-year growth.
The revision reflects a shift to a new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year, introduced in February 2026 , replacing the old 2011-12 base-year series.
The Q1 2025-26 estimate moved through four stages: ₹86.05 lakh crore (August 2025) → ₹80.32 lakh crore (new series) → ₹80.44 lakh crore (June 2026) → ₹80.00 lakh crore (after IIP and PPI incorporation).
Quarterly GDP is compiled using the benchmark-indicator approach , drawing on over 100 high-frequency indicators including crop output, cement, steel, and vehicle sales data.
MOSPI stated that comparing the two figures across different base-year series is statistically invalid and does not support the 2.6 per cent growth counterfactual.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) on 2 September formally rejected claims that India's Q1 GDP for 2025-26 was deliberately revised downward — from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore — to artificially inflate the current year's growth figure, and that without such a revision, Q1 2026-27 growth would have been only 2.6 per cent in current prices. The Ministry clarified that the change stems entirely from a methodological shift to a new GDP series anchored to 2022-23 as the base year, making any comparison with the old 2011-12 base-year figure statistically invalid.
The Base-Year Shift Explained
According to an FAQ issued by MOSPI, the Q1 GDP for 2026-27 has been estimated using the new series with 2022-23 as the base year and therefore cannot be directly compared with the ₹86 lakh crore figure for Q1 2025-26, which belonged to the old series based on 2011-12. The Ministry stated that a valid comparison can only be made against the ₹80 lakh crore figure derived from the new series. The two numbers, it emphasised, are products of entirely different methodological frameworks and are not interchangeable.
Step-by-Step Revision Trail
MOSPI provided a four-stage breakdown of how the Q1 2025-26 estimate evolved. First, the figure was initially released on 29 August 2025 under the then-prevailing 2011-12 base-year series, placing GDP at current prices at ₹86.05 lakh crore. Second, in February 2026, the Ministry introduced the new 2022-23 base-year series, which comprehensively revised estimates across the entire time series — incorporating updated data sources, improved methodologies, and revised coverage. Under this new series, the Q1 2025-26 estimate stood at ₹80.32 lakh crore.
Third, at the time of the release of Provisional Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 on 5 June 2026, the figure was further updated to ₹80.44 lakh crore, reflecting the availability of additional indicators and data. Fourth, the incorporation of the new series of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) necessitated updating relevant GDP estimates from 2022-23 onwards, resulting in the Q1 2025-26 figure being revised to ₹80.00 lakh crore.
How Quarterly GDP Is Compiled
The Ministry also explained the technical underpinnings of quarterly GDP estimation. Quarterly GDP estimates are compiled using the benchmark-indicator approach, under which the movement in quarterly estimates is guided by high-frequency indicators. MOSPI noted that more than a hundred volume or value indicators are used in this process, including growth in crop production, cement production index, finished steel consumption, and commercial vehicle sales. Critically, the Ministry stressed that a revision in the previous year's benchmark does not, by itself, create an artificial increase in current-year economic activity or the indicators used for estimation.
Why the Claim Is Rejected
MOSPI concluded that the movement from ₹86.05 lakh crore to ₹80.00 lakh crore is the cumulative result of successive revisions arising from the base-year change, incorporation of improved data sources and methodologies, and the updation of available indicators. The Ministry stated it is 'incorrect to interpret the difference as a deliberate downward revision of last year's GDP to mechanically increase the current year's growth rate.' This comes amid heightened scrutiny of India's national accounts methodology, with critics and economists periodically questioning the transparency of GDP revision cycles. The clarification signals the government's intent to pre-empt further misinterpretation as the new series beds in.
Point of View
And this is standard national accounts practice globally. However, the Ministry's need to issue a detailed FAQ signals that communication around the new series has been inadequate, leaving room for credible-sounding but misleading comparisons to circulate. India's GDP methodology has faced recurring scrutiny since the 2015 base-year shift, and each revision cycle reopens the same credibility debate. The real accountability gap is not in the numbers but in the lag between methodological changes and plain-language public explanation — a gap that MOSPI's reactive FAQ, rather than proactive disclosure, has once again exposed.
NationPress
2 Sept 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did India's Q1 2025-26 GDP figure change from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore?
The change reflects a shift to a new GDP series using 2022-23 as the base year, introduced in February 2026, which replaced the older 2011-12 base-year series. The two figures belong to different methodological frameworks and cannot be directly compared, according to MOSPI.
Would India's Q1 2026-27 GDP growth have been only 2.6 per cent without the revision?
MOSPI has rejected this claim, stating it is incorrect to compare Q1 2026-27 estimates — computed under the new 2022-23 series — with the ₹86 lakh crore figure from the old 2011-12 series. The valid comparison base is ₹80 lakh crore, which is derived from the same new series.
What is the benchmark-indicator approach used for quarterly GDP?
It is a method under which quarterly GDP movement is guided by more than 100 high-frequency indicators, such as crop production growth, cement production index, finished steel consumption, and commercial vehicle sales. A revision in the previous year's benchmark does not, by itself, create an artificial change in current-year economic activity, MOSPI clarified.
When was the new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year introduced?
The new GDP series was introduced in February 2026. It comprehensively revised estimates across the entire historical time series to incorporate updated data sources, improved methodologies, and revised coverage.
What triggered the final revision of Q1 2025-26 GDP to ₹80.00 lakh crore?
The incorporation of the new series of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) necessitated updating relevant GDP estimates from 2022-23 onwards, resulting in the Q1 2025-26 figure being adjusted to ₹80.00 lakh crore from the earlier ₹80.44 lakh crore.
