Why is CM Sarma Cautioning Party Workers Against Opinion Polls Projecting BJP Victory in Assam?
Synopsis
In a recent press conference, Assam's Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma warned party members about the dangers of reading too much into opinion poll predictions for the BJP's success in the upcoming elections. He emphasized the importance of finalizing seat-sharing agreements before celebrating any survey results.
Key Takeaways
CM Sarma stresses caution regarding premature celebration of opinion poll results.
Seat-sharing discussions within the NDA are still ongoing.
The poll suggests the BJP may secure between 69 to 74 seats.
The final picture will be clearer once the Congress finalizes its alliances.
Real results will depend on Electronic Voting Machines .
Guwahati, Jan 4 (NationPress) The Chief Minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, issued a warning on Sunday against making premature judgments based on a recent opinion survey that indicates the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could secure a third consecutive term. He emphasized that significant decisions regarding seat-sharing within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are still pending as the state Assembly elections of 2026 approach.
In response to the opinion poll results from a particular organization, which predicts that the BJP may win between 69 to 74 out of the 126 Assembly seats, CM Sarma remarked that it is too early to celebrate these projections.
He stated, "While surveys appear to place us in a favorable position, I contend that the moment for such analyses has not yet arrived," during a press briefing.
Furthermore, he pointed out that the projections regarding alliance partners cast doubt on the clarity of seat-sharing agreements. "The survey suggests that the BJP could claim approximately 75 seats, with the Asom Gana Parishad expected to gain nine. However, whether we will contest all these seats remains undecided," CM Sarma clarified, noting that clarity will only emerge once discussions within the NDA conclude.
He also mentioned that the structure of the Opposition's alliance is still being finalized.
"By February, when the Congress finalizes its alliances and we wrap up our seat-sharing negotiations, a clearer picture will emerge. Until then, we should not feel elated based on any survey results. Our efforts must continue," CM Sarma added, emphasizing that the real outcome will be determined by the Electronic Voting Machines.
The opinion poll, which was conducted between November 15 and December 31, 2025, anticipates that the NDA may secure nearly 90 seats in total.
It also forecasts that the Asom Gana Parishad could win between eight and 11 seats, while the Bodoland People's Front is expected to garner eight to ten seats.
The Congress is projected to achieve between 25 and 29 seats, while smaller parties such as the All India United Democratic Front, United People's Party Liberal, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, and CPI(M) are likely to obtain minimal or no representation.
In terms of vote share, the BJP is estimated to be at 39 percent, slightly ahead of Congress at 37 percent.
Geographically, the NDA is expected to retain a strong presence in Upper Assam and Bodoland, with enhanced prospects in Lower Assam and the Barak Valley following delimitation.
Point of View
Our perspective aligns with the nation's interests, highlighting the need for caution in interpreting opinion polls. While the BJP's projected numbers are encouraging, the focus should remain on solidifying alliances and preparing for the upcoming elections. It is essential to ensure that political movements are based on informed decisions rather than premature optimism.
NationPress
9 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What did CM Sarma say about the opinion polls?
CM Sarma cautioned party workers against celebrating the projections from recent opinion polls, stating that critical seat-sharing decisions within the NDA are yet to be finalized.
What are the projected seat numbers for the BJP?
The opinion poll forecasts the BJP winning between 69 to 74 seats in the upcoming elections.
When will the final seat-sharing arrangements be made?
Final seat-sharing discussions are expected to conclude by February, after which a clearer picture will emerge.
What is the significance of the upcoming Assam Assembly elections?
The elections are crucial for determining the political landscape in Assam, especially with the BJP aiming for a third consecutive term.
How reliable are opinion polls?
Opinion polls can provide insights but should not be solely relied upon for decision-making, as they may not accurately reflect the final voting outcomes.
