NDA projected to win 102 seats in Assam, Himanta Sarma set for third term
Synopsis
Exit polls give the BJP-led NDA a commanding 102-seat projection in Assam's 126-member Assembly, with 50% vote share — and a senior minister is already declaring Himanta Biswa Sarma the next Chief Minister. If the numbers hold on 4 May, it would mark a historic third consecutive term for Sarma and a near-wipeout for the Congress-led Opposition.
Key Takeaways
Assam Assembly election results are scheduled to be declared on 4 May .
Exit poll by Today's Chanakya projects the BJP-led NDA winning 102 seats in the 126-member House , with a margin of error of ± 9 seats .
The Congress-led Opposition alliance is projected to win 23 seats , with the same margin of error.
NDA's projected vote share stands at 50% ; Congress bloc at 38% ; others at 12% .
Assam Minister Ashok Singhal asserted that Himanta Biswa Sarma would return as Chief Minister for a third consecutive term .
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to cross the 100-seat mark in the Assam Assembly elections, with results scheduled to be declared on 4 May, according to exit poll data and a senior state minister. Assam Minister Ashok Singhal on Friday expressed strong confidence that the ruling alliance would secure a commanding majority in the 126-member House and that Himanta Biswa Sarma would return as Chief Minister for a third consecutive term.
What the Exit Polls Show
According to an exit poll by Today's Chanakya, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA is projected to win 102 seats, with a margin of error of plus or minus 9 seats. The Opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress (Congress) is projected to secure 23 seats, within the same margin of error. Other parties and independents are expected to remain marginal, collectively accounting for around 1 seat.
In terms of vote share, the BJP-led alliance is projected to receive approximately 50 per cent of votes, with a possible fluctuation of 3 percentage points. The Congress-led bloc is estimated to secure 38 per cent, while other parties and independents may together account for 12 per cent.
What the Minister Said
Speaking to reporters in Guwahati on 1 May, Minister Singhal said voters would deliver an
Point of View
And the ±9-seat margin of error means the actual outcome could still fall short of a three-figure tally. What is notable is that the BJP's organisational machinery and welfare outreach appear to have insulated it from anti-incumbency, a challenge that has tripped ruling parties in other states. The Congress, projected at just 23 seats, faces an existential question about its relevance in Assam — a state it once dominated. If the projections hold, Himanta Biswa Sarma's third term would cement his position as the BJP's most electorally dominant chief minister in the Northeast, with significant implications for the party's regional strategy ahead of 2026 state cycles.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Assam Assembly election results be declared?
The Assam Assembly election results are scheduled to be declared on 4 May. Counting of votes will determine whether the NDA's projected 102-seat majority materialises.
How many seats is the NDA projected to win in Assam?
According to an exit poll by Today's Chanakya, the BJP-led NDA is projected to win 102 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, with a margin of error of plus or minus 9 seats.
Will Himanta Biswa Sarma become Chief Minister again?
Assam Minister Ashok Singhal has asserted that Himanta Biswa Sarma will return as Chief Minister for a third consecutive term if the NDA wins, which exit polls currently project. The official outcome will be known on 4 May.
What vote share is the BJP alliance projected to get in Assam?
The BJP-led NDA alliance is projected to receive approximately 50 per cent of the vote share, with a possible fluctuation of 3 percentage points. The Congress-led Opposition bloc is estimated at 38 per cent, and others at 12 per cent.
How many seats is the Congress-led Opposition projected to win in Assam?
The Congress-led Opposition alliance is projected to win 23 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly, according to the Today's Chanakya exit poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 9 seats.
