Tamil Nadu is staring at a power shortfall of 6,162 MW in September 2027, with revised projections placing peak evening demand above 24,000 MW across the July–September quarter — a figure that has widened sharply from earlier estimates. The forecast comes as procurement costs spiral, forcing the state utility to cancel two power purchase tenders within three days.

Revised Demand Projections

The Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation Limited (TNPDCL) placed the updated estimates before the Southern Regional Power Committee's Operational Coordination Committee at its meeting on 9 October. September's evening peak requirement has been revised upward to 24,350 MW, against an earlier estimate of 22,345 MW. With expected availability holding steady at 18,188 MW, the projected shortfall has widened from 4,157 MW to 6,162 MW.

The revisions are not confined to September. July's peak requirement has been raised by 2,910 MW to 24,330 MW, while August's estimate has climbed by 2,985 MW to 24,300 MW. Evening shortages are projected at 5,544 MW in April, 5,592 MW in July, and 5,612 MW in August.

El Niño Effect and Record Demand

The steep upward revision reflects an unusual demand pattern observed this year. Tamil Nadu recorded its highest-ever peak demand of 21,724 MW on 14 July and a record daily consumption of 475.477 million units on 17 July — peaks that typically occur in April or May. Officials have attributed the prolonged high-demand period to the impact of El Niño, which has pushed summer-like conditions well beyond the traditional hot months.

Maximum demand in September 2026 had already reached 21,083 MW, up 14.67% from 18,386 MW a year earlier — underscoring a consistent upward trajectory that the new projections now build upon.

Energy Deficit Beyond Peak Hours

The challenge extends beyond peak-hour shortages. Tamil Nadu expects an overall energy deficit beginning March 2027, with the shortfall projected at 682 million units in March and 2,394 million units in April. July's energy requirement is estimated at 15,276 million units, against an availability of 13,100 million units. An energy surplus is projected only for October.

Tender Cancellations and Procurement Challenges

Procurement woes have compounded the supply outlook. On 29 October, TNPDCL cancelled a tender for round-the-clock and peak-hour supplies between November 2026 and January 2027 after bids ranged from ₹8.50 to ₹35 per unit. Just two days earlier, it scrapped a separate tender for 1,000 MW of evening-hour supply between November 2026 and May 2027, following quotations of ₹37 to ₹41.50 per unit — rates deemed unviable.

This is a significant procurement setback, as the winter quarter is typically used to build buffer capacity ahead of the summer demand surge. Two failed tenders in quick succession narrow the utility's options.

What TNPDCL Plans Next

The utility is banking on a tender opening on 6 November for supplies between February and July, covering 750–1,200 MW during peak hours and 1,250–2,000 MW on a round-the-clock basis. TNPDCL is also pursuing medium and long-term purchase arrangements. On the generation side, it expects additional capacity from Udangudi's second 660 MW unit and the two 660 MW units of the Ennore SEZ project to help bridge the gap in 2027.

Whether these measures will be sufficient to contain the widening shortfall — especially if El Niño conditions persist — will depend on how swiftly procurement deals close and new generation capacity comes online.