WEF report: 74% of chief economists forecast strong growth for India in 2026
Synopsis
A new WEF survey of chief economists finds India sitting at the top of the global growth table — with 74% expecting strong or very strong growth, up from 52% just four months ago, and the FY27 forecast upgraded to 6.7%. The disconnect between that macro optimism and a Nifty 50 that is down 7.9% year-to-date is the story within the story.
Key Takeaways
98% of chief economists surveyed by the WEF expect moderate or stronger growth for India over the next 12 months .
74% anticipate strong or very strong growth, up from 52% in May 2026 .
India's growth forecast for FY2026–27 was raised to 6.7% in August 2026 .
Consumer price inflation stood at 4.8% year-on-year in August, above the 4% target but within the 2–6% tolerance band.
The policy rate was held at 5.25% in August; 67% of economists expect it to remain unchanged.
The Nifty 50 was down 7.9% year-to-date as of 19 August 2026 , diverging from broader macro optimism.
India holds the strongest growth outlook among all geographies tracked in the latest World Economic Forum (WEF) chief economists survey, with 98% of respondents expecting moderate or stronger growth over the next 12 months. Notably, 74% of surveyed economists anticipate strong or very strong growth for India — up sharply from 52% in May 2026 — underscoring a significant uptick in global confidence in the Indian economy.
Growth Forecast and Domestic Demand
India's growth forecast for fiscal year 2026–27 was revised upward to 6.7% in August 2026, reflecting continued resilience in domestic consumption. According to the WEF report, 'Growth is expected to remain supported by resilient domestic demand, although higher energy prices continue to weigh on the outlook.' This marks one of the more optimistic revisions among major emerging economies in the current global cycle.
The upgrade comes even as global headwinds — including elevated energy costs and subdued export demand — persist, suggesting that India's growth engine is increasingly driven from within rather than by external tailwinds.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook
Inflation expectations have eased since May. Currently, 55% of chief economists expect moderate inflation over the next 12 months, while 45% anticipate high inflation — a notable improvement from May, when 61% forecast high or very high inflation. Consumer price inflation stood at 4.8% year-on-year in August 2026, moving above the 4% medium-term target but staying within the 2–6% tolerance band.
On monetary policy, a majority — 67% of respondents — expect the policy rate to remain unchanged, while 24% anticipate tightening. The policy rate was held at 5.25% in August alongside a neutral stance. The WEF outlook noted: 'Strong growth and inflation that remains within the tolerance range are broadly consistent with survey expectations of policy stability.'
Fiscal Policy and Equity Markets
Fiscal policy is also broadly expected to stay stable, with 72% of economists anticipating no change and 22% expecting a looser stance. However, equity market performance has been comparatively subdued: the Nifty 50 was down 7.9% since the start of the year as of 19 August 2026, a divergence that suggests investor sentiment has not fully tracked the macroeconomic optimism reflected in the survey.
This comes amid a broader global re-pricing of risk assets, with several emerging market indices under pressure from US interest rate uncertainty and dollar strength.
Labour Market Conditions
The unemployment rate among people aged 15 and above edged down to 5% in August from 5.1% in July, while the labour force participation rate rose marginally from 55.4% to 55.6% over the same period. Among chief economists, 70% expect unemployment to remain unchanged over the next 12 months, while 17% foresee an increase and 13% anticipate a decline.
The WEF survey noted that these indicators point to relatively stable labour market conditions alongside strong activity, while flagging that sustained employment creation remains a critical priority for long-term growth.
What the Numbers Mean for India
The combined picture — robust growth forecasts, moderating inflation, stable policy expectations, and a tightening labour market — positions India as an outlier of resilience in an otherwise uncertain global environment. The gap between the optimism of chief economists and the Nifty 50's year-to-date performance is a tension worth watching, as markets eventually tend to converge with macro fundamentals — or expose where they diverge.
Point of View
But the real signal is in the direction of change — sentiment has moved sharply positive in just four months, suggesting the global economist community sees India's domestic demand as a genuine buffer against external turbulence. Yet the Nifty 50's near-8% year-to-date decline is a quiet warning that equity investors are pricing in risks the survey economists may be discounting: higher energy costs, a still-elevated inflation print, and the gap between growth forecasts and actual job creation. The labour market numbers are nudging in the right direction, but a 5% unemployment rate alongside rising participation still leaves substantial slack. The test for India's growth story is whether it broadens — beyond headline GDP — into durable employment and real wage gains.
NationPress
25 Sept 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the WEF chief economists survey say about India's growth outlook?
The WEF survey found that 98% of chief economists expect moderate or stronger growth for India over the next 12 months, with 74% forecasting strong or very strong growth — up from 52% in May 2026. India holds the strongest growth outlook among all geographies covered in the report.
What is India's GDP growth forecast for FY2026-27?
India's growth forecast for fiscal year 2026–27 was revised upward to 6.7% in August 2026, driven by continued resilience in domestic demand. The WEF report noted that higher energy prices remain a downside risk to the outlook.
Where does India's inflation stand and what do economists expect?
Consumer price inflation was 4.8% year-on-year in August 2026, above the 4% medium-term target but within the 2–6% tolerance band. Inflation expectations have moderated: 55% of chief economists now expect moderate inflation over the next 12 months, compared with 61% who forecast high or very high inflation in May.
What is the outlook for India's monetary policy?
67% of chief economists expect India's monetary policy to remain unchanged, while 24% anticipate tightening. The policy rate was held at 5.25% in August 2026 with a neutral stance, and the WEF noted this is broadly consistent with the combination of strong growth and contained inflation.
How is India's labour market performing according to the WEF report?
India's unemployment rate among people aged 15 and above fell to 5% in August 2026 from 5.1% in July, while labour force participation rose from 55.4% to 55.6%. 70% of chief economists expect unemployment to remain stable over the next 12 months, though the WEF flagged that sustained employment creation remains a key priority.
