China is bracing for what climate scientists describe as a potential 'super' El Niño — a phenomenon whose most destructive phase may still lie ahead, even as 2026's early impacts already rival some of the worst climate disasters on record. Extreme typhoons, severe flooding, and scorching heatwaves have battered the country in rapid succession, with researchers pointing to an accelerating warm-water anomaly in the tropical Pacific as the driving force.

A 'Pot of Boiling Soup' in the Pacific

Jiang Hua, chief El Niño forecaster at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre, issued a stark assessment in an interview with the Global Times on July 22. 'The entire tropical Pacific is like a pot of boiling soup,' she said, adding that in terms of intensity, 'this year's El Niño could already rival the historically recognised super El Niño of 1997-98.'

The 1997-98 super El Niño remains one of the most devastating climate events in modern history, responsible for widespread droughts, floods, and economic losses across multiple continents. That this year's event is already drawing comparisons to it — before reaching its peak — has alarmed forecasters.

Why It Matters: The Prelude Is Already Destructive

Jiang warned that although the most severe impacts of a super El Niño typically manifest in the following year, the current 'prelude' had already demonstrated 'extreme destructive power.' Rivers including the Yangtze, Pearl, and Songhua have seen abnormal water levels, while regions such as Hunan, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia have reported acute weather stress.

Scientists note that super El Niño events do not confine their damage to China — their reach extends across the Asia-Pacific, affecting monsoon patterns, agricultural output, and energy demand on a global scale.

The Science Behind the Surge

In March, Jiang and her team detected large volumes of anomalously warm water beneath the surface across tropical regions of both the northern and southern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. These warm-water anomalies, according to the researchers, are converging toward the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accelerating the event's development.

The convergence pattern is consistent with the early-stage signatures observed before previous super El Niño cycles, lending credibility to the forecasters' concern that conditions could intensify significantly through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

Competitive Backdrop: Global Climate Models Under Pressure

The warning from the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre comes as meteorological agencies worldwide are under scrutiny for the accuracy of their El Niño intensity predictions. Early-detection failures ahead of the 1997-98 event cost governments critical preparation time, and the scientific community has since invested heavily in subsurface ocean monitoring.

Whether those investments translate into timely policy responses — particularly across vulnerable Asia-Pacific economies — remains an open question as the event continues to develop.

What's Next

Forecasters at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre are monitoring whether the subsurface warm-water mass continues its eastward migration, which would confirm a full super El Niño classification. Governments across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the broader Pacific basin are being urged to activate contingency plans for flooding, drought, and heatwave scenarios simultaneously. The critical window to watch is the transition from late 2026 into the first half of 2027, when historical precedent suggests peak destructive impact.