India's 4G smartphone shipments are projected to grow 3 per cent year-on-year in 2026, recovering after a steep 48 per cent year-on-year decline in 2025, according to a report released on 28 September by market research firm Counterpoint Research. The segment's share in India's overall smartphone market is expected to climb to 13 per cent in 2026, up from 11 per cent in 2025, as rising component costs push 5G handsets further out of reach for budget-conscious buyers.

Why 4G Is Staging a Comeback

The primary driver, according to Counterpoint Research, is a widening price gap between 4G and 5G devices caused by escalating component costs. As 5G models migrate into higher price bands, consumers in the entry segment (sub-₹10,000) and budget segment (₹10,000–₹20,000) are gravitating back toward 4G handsets that offer better value for money.

Notably, the number of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) offering 4G models in the ₹10,000–₹20,000 price band has surged from just two in 2025 to 12 in 2026 year-to-date — a sixfold expansion that signals a deliberate industry pivot rather than a temporary blip.

What Analysts Are Saying

Senior Analyst Prachir Singh of Counterpoint Research said the growing portfolio is repositioning 4G as a credible value proposition. 'This growing portfolio is positioning 4G as a broader value proposition, giving consumers a balance of price, specifications and performance as rising costs push 5G smartphones into higher price bands,' Singh said.

The report further noted that '4G is becoming a broader market trend rather than a short-term response to higher smartphone prices, as component prices are unlikely to normalise soon' — a signal that the 4G resurgence could outlast expectations built around rapid 5G mass adoption.

Outlook Through 2027

Research Director Tarun Pathak of Counterpoint Research forecast that 4G's share in India's smartphone market will continue rising, reaching 15 per cent in 2027, up from 13 per cent in 2026. 'We expect this broader price-value positioning to support continued 4G demand, while encouraging OEMs to expand their portfolios with more capable 4G devices,' Pathak added.

This comes amid a broader global trend: a separate report published earlier this month projected that global sub-$200 smartphone shipments will fall by approximately 40 per cent between 2025 and 2030, with entry-tier devices facing the sharpest contraction as higher component costs erode the viability of the lowest-priced handsets.

Impact on India's Smartphone Market

India remains one of the world's largest and most price-sensitive smartphone markets, making these dynamics particularly consequential. The 4G rebound suggests that the country's mass-market upgrade cycle — long assumed to be a straight line toward 5G — is more complex and cost-dependent than the industry had anticipated. For OEMs, the incentive is clear: a market where 12 brands now compete in the budget 4G tier is one that rewards portfolio breadth and component efficiency.

Whether the 4G revival sustains into 2028 will depend largely on how quickly 5G component costs normalise — a timeline that, according to Counterpoint Research, remains uncertain.