India's smartphone shipments declined 10 per cent year-on-year in the April-June 2025 quarter — the steepest fall for a June quarter in six years — as record-high memory prices pushed device costs sharply higher across segments, according to a report by Counterpoint Research released on Friday, 17 July. Weakening consumer demand and elongated replacement cycles compounded the pressure, even as brands rolled out promotions and financing schemes.

What Drove the Decline

The primary culprit was a surge in memory and component costs, which forced virtually every major original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to execute multiple rounds of price increases. According to Counterpoint Research senior analyst Prachir Singh, the cumulative effect was 'an average smartphone price hike of around 15 per cent by the end of the second quarter.' On the demand side, macroeconomic headwinds, persistent inflationary pressures, and subdued discretionary spending dampened the appetite for upgrades.

Mass-Market Segment Bears the Brunt

The sub-₹15,000 mass-market segment was hit hardest, with shipments collapsing 45 per cent year-on-year. In response, several OEMs expanded their 4G portfolios in this price band to cushion volume losses. While 5G remains the industry's long-term growth driver, Singh noted that 4G will continue to play a critical role for value-conscious consumers until component costs stabilise.

Ultra-Premium Segment Shows Resilience

At the other end of the market, the ultra-premium segment — devices priced above ₹45,000 — held up comparatively well, supported by the wider availability of financing options. Instalment-based purchase schemes reduced the effective upfront cost for buyers, making high-end handsets accessible despite broad pricing pressure. This divergence between mass-market distress and premium resilience is a recurring pattern in periods of component-cost inflation.

Outlook: Pressure to Persist Through 2025

The near-term prognosis is sobering. Smartphone memory prices have risen nearly 4x since September 2025 and are expected to climb further — potentially reaching 5x in the coming months, according to the report. Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak said the market is expected to 'remain under pressure through the rest of the year, as elevated memory and component costs continue to keep device prices high.' The firm projects a full-year decline of 13 per cent year-on-year for India's smartphone market in 2025. This would mark one of the sharpest annual contractions the segment has seen in recent memory, with implications for device makers, component suppliers, and retail channels alike.