World Bank: AI can give developing economies a century of growth in a decade
Synopsis
The World Bank's flagship 2026 development report delivers a striking verdict: AI can hand developing economies a century's worth of growth in a decade — but only if governments move fast. With just 4.5% of jobs in low-income nations at automation risk versus 14.2% in rich countries, the window for a leapfrog moment is real, but so is the risk of being left behind entirely.
Key Takeaways
The World Bank's World Development Report 2026 says AI could help developing economies achieve in a decade what might otherwise take a century.
Only 4.5% of jobs in low- and middle-income countries face automation risk from generative AI, versus 14.2% in high-income countries.
16.2% of jobs in developing economies could see meaningful productivity gains from AI, close to the 18.7% figure for wealthier nations.
World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill said small, low-cost AI tools — not large data centres — are the path forward for developing nations.
Without deliberate action, AI risks widening inequality between and within countries, concentrating market power, and undermining institutional trust.
Developing economies are currently in their weakest average growth phase in three decades ; AI could reverse this before the end of the 2020s .
Artificial intelligence could help developing economies compress generations of progress into a single decade — but only if their governments urgently address critical gaps in power supply, internet connectivity, workforce skills, and institutional quality, according to the World Development Report 2026 released by the World Bank.
Key Findings on Jobs and Automation
The report draws a sharp contrast between the automation risk faced by workers in different income brackets. Jobs in high-income countries are more than three times as likely to be displaced by generative AI as those in low- and middle-income countries. Specifically, 4.5 per cent of existing jobs in developing economies face automation risk, compared with 14.2 per cent in wealthier nations.
On the opportunity side, 16.2 per cent of jobs in developing economies could see productivity meaningfully boosted by AI — a figure close to the 18.7 per cent projected for high-income countries. 'The greatest promise for developing countries lies not in replacing workers, but in amplifying what they can do,' the report stated.
What the World Bank Chief Economist Said
Indermit Gill, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group, argued that developing nations do not need massive infrastructure to benefit. 'AI has thrown developing economies a lifeline, and they should seize it. They do not need large models or big data centers to reap its benefits,' Gill said. He added that by adapting 'small, low-cost AI tools to local conditions, they can bring better medical care, education, judicial services and agricultural extension within reach of millions.'
Gill also sounded a note of urgency: 'AI is spreading faster and is more context-specific than earlier general-purpose technologies like electricity and the internet.'
Practical Applications Across Sectors
The report highlighted that AI is already enabling doctors to diagnose patients more accurately, helping farmers make better crop decisions, and allowing businesses to raise productivity. Governments, it noted, could deploy AI to strengthen tax collection, social welfare programmes, disaster response, healthcare delivery, and education systems — areas where trained professionals and reliable records are often scarce in lower-income nations.
Risks if Action Is Delayed
Developing economies are currently experiencing their weakest average growth performance in three decades, according to the World Bank. AI could meaningfully reverse that trajectory before the end of the 2020s — but the window is narrow. Without deliberate policy action, the report warned, AI could widen gaps between countries, deepen inequality within them, concentrate market power in fewer hands, erode trust in public institutions, and generate new risks for safety, rights, and social cohesion.
Many developing nations still lack the foundational prerequisites — reliable power, broadband access, quality data, skilled workers, and capable institutions — to deploy AI at scale. Closing those gaps, the report concluded, is the defining policy challenge of this decade.
Point of View
Connectivity, and institutions are not closed first. Developing economies have heard the leapfrog narrative before, with mobile banking and internet access; AI is faster-moving and more unforgiving of infrastructure deficits. The real policy test is not whether governments endorse AI — most already do — but whether they can build the prerequisites at the speed the technology demands.
NationPress
5 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the World Bank's World Development Report 2026 say about AI and developing countries?
The report says AI could help developing economies achieve in a decade what might otherwise take a century, provided governments urgently close gaps in power, connectivity, skills, and institutional quality. It identifies AI as a potential growth accelerator for nations currently in their weakest average growth phase in three decades.
How does automation risk from AI differ between rich and poor countries?
Jobs in high-income countries are more than three times as likely to face automation risk from generative AI — 14.2% of jobs — compared with just 4.5% in low- and middle-income countries. This means developing economies face lower displacement risk but must still act to capture the productivity upside.
Which sectors can benefit most from AI in developing economies?
The report points to healthcare, education, agriculture, judicial services, tax collection, and disaster response as sectors where AI tools can deliver outsized gains, particularly where trained professionals and reliable data are scarce.
What risks does the World Bank flag if developing countries fail to act?
Without deliberate policy action, the World Bank warns that AI could widen gaps between countries, increase inequality within them, concentrate market power, weaken trust in public institutions, and create new risks for safety, rights, and social cohesion.
What did World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill say about AI for developing nations?
Gill said developing countries do not need large models or big data centres to benefit from AI. He urged them to adopt small, low-cost AI tools adapted to local conditions, warning that AI is spreading faster than earlier general-purpose technologies like electricity and the internet.
