Gold prices on Thursday, 6 August climbed to a seven-week high on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), driven by lower US Treasury yields that reinforced safe-haven buying — even as optimism around a potential US-Iran agreement tempered some of the geopolitical risk premium. The rally underscores gold's dual role as both a crisis hedge and a yield-sensitive asset.

MCX Gold and Silver Performance

MCX gold futures (October 5) opened 0.36 per cent or ₹536 higher at ₹1,49,029 per 10 grams before touching an intraday peak of ₹1,49,700 — a gain of 0.81 per cent or ₹1,207 by 12:10 pm IST. On the silver front, MCX silver futures (September 4) recorded an intraday high of ₹2,28,397 per kg, up 0.35 per cent or ₹813 over the previous close of ₹2,27,584, before easing to ₹2,26,580 — a marginal decline of 0.44 per cent or ₹1,004.

International Markets Follow Suit

In global markets, COMEX gold was trading 0.36 per cent higher at $4,320 per ounce, while COMEX silver edged up 0.12 per cent to $62.36 per ounce. Notably, the advance came despite reports suggesting the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, and comments from US President Donald Trump indicating Washington was actively seeking a deal with Tehran.

What Is Driving the Rally

According to market experts, expectations that easing West Asia tensions could pull down crude oil prices have reduced near-term inflation concerns, in turn softening US Treasury yields. Lower yields diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making the metal more attractive to investors. This is the latest in a series of safe-haven surges tied to US-Iran diplomatic developments over the past several weeks.

Brent crude — the international oil benchmark — slipped 0.51 per cent to trade below $80 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 1 per cent to below $75 per barrel, reinforcing the easing energy-price narrative.

Technical Levels to Watch

For MCX gold, analysts place immediate resistance at ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700; a sustained break above that range opens the path toward ₹1,52,200–₹1,52,800. Immediate support sits at ₹1,48,600–₹1,48,000, with the next support band at ₹1,46,600–₹1,46,000. Experts note that price has 'decisively broken above all key EMAs (20/50/100/200), confirming a strong shift in near-term momentum after weeks of consolidation,' adding that 'bias stays positive above ₹1,49,000, with a hold needed to extend gains toward ₹1,50,000; a slip below ₹1,49,000 would signal exhaustion after the sharp run-up.'

For MCX silver, a sustained move above ₹2,29,000 targets the next resistance band of ₹2,31,500–₹2,32,500. Immediate support is at ₹2,25,000–₹2,24,000, with the next support at ₹2,22,000–₹2,21,000. Analysts observe that silver is 'holding above its 20-EMA and 200-EMA, with RSI at 54, edging upward,' though a decisive close above the 50-EMA is needed to confirm renewed strength. Bias is described as 'cautiously constructive above ₹2,28,000,' with a break above ₹2,30,000 opening the path higher.

What to Watch Next

The direction of both metals will hinge on the outcome of US-Iran negotiations and the trajectory of US Treasury yields. Any concrete diplomatic breakthrough could cap gold's upside by reducing safe-haven demand, while a breakdown in talks would likely accelerate the rally toward the ₹1,52,000 zone. Crude oil's reaction to Strait of Hormuz developments will also be a key secondary signal for inflation expectations.