Gold falls 1.16% on weekly basis as dollar, Treasury yields weigh
Synopsis
Gold slid 1.16 per cent on the week despite a mid-week Fed-driven rally, as rising US Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and a near-63 per cent market-implied probability of a September rate hike kept safe-haven demand in check. With US-Iran tensions and Red Sea disruptions still unresolved, bullion markets face a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and a hawkish Fed.
Key Takeaways
Gold fell 1.16 per cent on a weekly basis as of 1 August , pressured by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
MCX Gold August futures settled at ₹1,41,599 ; MCX Silver September futures closed at ₹2,17,488 per kg .
24-carat gold (10g) dropped from ₹1,44,532 on Monday to ₹1,42,860 on Friday, per IBJA data.
The implied probability of a September Fed rate hike rose to roughly 63 per cent , reducing near-term rate-cut expectations.
Geopolitical flashpoints — US-Iran tensions and a Houthi blockade of Red Sea shipping — added volatility but failed to sustain a bullion rally.
Key resistance for MCX Gold sits at ₹1,44,000–₹1,44,300 ; support at ₹1,43,000–₹1,43,300 .
Gold prices declined 1.16 per cent on a weekly basis as of 1 August, pressured by higher US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar that curbed safe-haven demand. The retreat came despite a mid-week rally sparked by the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady.
Spot and Futures Prices
On Friday, MCX Gold August futures edged up 0.06 per cent, settling at ₹1,41,599, while MCX Silver September futures slipped 1.13 per cent to ₹2,17,488 per kg. According to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), the price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold stood at ₹1,42,860 on Friday, down from ₹1,44,532 at Monday's market opening — a decline of roughly ₹1,672 across the week.
What Drove the Weekly Volatility
Bullion markets saw a turbulent week shaped by two competing forces. Gold briefly rallied around 2 per cent after the Fed left rates unchanged, and extended those gains into Thursday as the dollar softened. However, sticky inflation expectations — partly driven by a rise in oil prices — and a resilient US labour market reinforced a relatively hawkish Fed outlook, reducing near-term rate-cut expectations.
The implied probability of a September rate hike rose to roughly 63 per cent, according to market participants, dampening appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Geopolitical Tensions Add to Uncertainty
The US-Iran conflict oscillated between de-escalation and renewed hostilities through the week, injecting additional volatility into commodity markets. Iran's Revolutionary Guard reportedly turned back tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia convened 43 countries to form a maritime coalition to protect Red Sea shipping lanes following a Houthi blockade. Though crude prices eased, inflation concerns kept Treasury yields elevated, indirectly weighing on precious metals.
Market participants noted that a sustained ceasefire could ease energy price pressures, improve broader risk sentiment, and provide fresh support for bullion.
Silver's Steadier Tone
'Silver was comparatively steady, trading within a relatively narrow range, while the broader precious metals complex maintained a cautious tone as investors awaited fresh macroeconomic catalysts and greater clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path,' an analyst said.
Key Levels to Watch
For Comex Gold, immediate resistance is placed at $4,160–$4,180, with support at $4,090–$4,070. On the domestic front, MCX Gold faces resistance at ₹1,44,000–₹1,44,300, with a support band at ₹1,43,000–₹1,43,300, according to market participants.
Investors will closely track upcoming US inflation and labour market data, Fed commentary, Treasury yield movements, and the US Dollar Index for fresh directional cues on the interest-rate outlook.
Point of View
US-Iran tensions and Red Sea disruptions would be rocket fuel for safe-haven buying — yet bullion still ended the week lower. The reason is the Fed's credibility problem in reverse: markets now price a rate hike rather than a cut in September, making gold's zero-yield profile a liability. Until the dollar softens meaningfully or the Fed pivots, every geopolitical spike in gold is likely to be sold into. Domestic buyers in India, already stretched at ₹1,42,000-plus levels, should watch the IBJA rate closely — a break below ₹1,41,000 on MCX could trigger the next wave of retail demand, but a sustained move above ₹1,44,300 would signal the macro headwinds have eased.
NationPress
1 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices fall this week?
Gold declined 1.16 per cent on a weekly basis as higher US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven assets. A hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and rising implied probability of a September rate hike further capped gains.
What is the current MCX gold price?
As of 1 August, MCX Gold August futures stood at ₹1,41,599. The IBJA-reported price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was ₹1,42,860 on Friday, down from ₹1,44,532 at the start of the week.
How did the Federal Reserve's decision affect gold?
The Fed's decision to hold interest rates unchanged initially triggered a roughly 2 per cent rally in gold. However, the rally faded as the Fed's relatively hawkish tone — combined with sticky inflation and a resilient labour market — pushed the implied probability of a September rate hike to around 63 per cent, weighing on bullion by week's end.
What geopolitical factors influenced gold and commodity markets this week?
The US-Iran conflict moved between de-escalation and renewed hostilities, while Iran's Revolutionary Guard reportedly turned back tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia also convened 43 countries to protect Red Sea shipping following a Houthi blockade. These tensions kept crude and inflation concerns elevated, indirectly pressuring gold.
What are the key price levels for gold next week?
For Comex Gold, resistance is at $4,160–$4,180 and support at $4,090–$4,070. For MCX Gold, resistance is at ₹1,44,000–₹1,44,300 and support at ₹1,43,000–₹1,43,300, according to market participants.
