Gold slips on US inflation data as Fed rate hike odds hit 88%
Synopsis
Gold's retreat near $4,340 an ounce is about more than inflation — it's a convergence of a hawkish Fed, Red Sea geopolitics, and a crude oil rally above $107 a barrel, all compressing bullion's appeal simultaneously. With traders pricing an 88% chance of the Fed's first hike in three years, the precious metals complex faces a pivotal week.
Key Takeaways
Spot gold fell to near $4,340 an ounce on 14 September , down 0.2% on the day and 1.8% for the week.
MCX gold futures (October expiry) stood at ₹1,52,655 ; MCX silver futures at ₹2,34,886 per kg .
US core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August , raising Fed rate-hike odds to nearly 88% .
A Fed hike this week would be the institution's first in three years .
WTI crude climbed above $107 a barrel amid Houthi seizures of Yemeni ports, Saudi pipeline shutdown, and a merchant vessel strike in the Strait of Hormuz .
MCX gold and silver trade on Monday was limited to an evening session ( 5 pm – 11:30 pm IST ) due to Ganesh Chaturthi .
Gold prices retreated on Monday, 14 September after stronger-than-expected US inflation data sharply raised the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this week, dealing a fresh blow to bullion's near-term outlook. Spot gold was trading near $4,340 an ounce, down nearly 0.2% on the day and off 1.8% for the week.
MCX Trading and Domestic Prices
On domestic exchanges, MCX gold and silver futures were restricted to an evening session from 5 pm to 11:30 pm IST on Monday, with morning trade halted in observance of Ganesh Chaturthi. MCX gold futures expiring in October stood at ₹1,52,655, while MCX silver futures for September delivery were priced at ₹2,34,886 per kg.
US Inflation Data Fuels Rate Hike Expectations
The catalyst for Monday's slide was Friday's US consumer price data, which showed the core consumer price index (CPI) — excluding food and energy — rising 0.3% month-on-month in August. The hotter-than-expected reading reinforced bets on a Fed move, with traders now pricing in a nearly 88% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting — what would be the institution's first rate increase in three years.
Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold, which offers no yield, making it less attractive relative to rate-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.
Red Sea Tensions and Crude Oil Rally Add to Pressure
Compounding inflation concerns, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea have raised supply-disruption fears. Houthi forces have reportedly seized key ports in Yemen, threatening a critical corridor for global seaborne oil trade. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks, and a merchant vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Iranian authorities said one person was killed and three injured in that incident.
These developments pushed WTI crude above $107 a barrel, adding fresh momentum to inflationary pressures and, by extension, to rate-hike expectations that weighed further on bullion.
Silver, Platinum and Palladium Also Under Pressure
Silver fell nearly 0.8% to $64 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also declined. The broad-based weakness across precious metals reflects a risk-off recalibration as investors digest the implications of persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy ahead.
With the Fed decision due later this week and Red Sea disruptions still unresolved, gold's near-term trajectory will hinge on how aggressively policymakers signal further tightening.
Point of View
Underappreciated layer: crude above $107 driven by Red Sea disruptions means inflation could stay stickier for longer, keeping the rate-hike narrative alive well beyond this week's meeting. For Indian investors, the MCX prices — already elevated — reflect both global macro pressure and rupee dynamics, and a decisive Fed move could trigger a sharper domestic correction than the international spot move alone would suggest.
NationPress
14 Sept 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices fall on 14 September 2026?
Gold prices fell because stronger-than-expected US core CPI data for August lifted the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to nearly 88%, reducing bullion's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Spot gold slipped to near $4,340 an ounce, down about 0.2% on the day.
What are MCX gold and silver prices today?
MCX gold futures expiring in October were priced at ₹1,52,655, while MCX silver futures for September delivery stood at ₹2,34,886 per kg. MCX trade on Monday was restricted to an evening session from 5 pm to 11:30 pm IST due to the Ganesh Chaturthi holiday.
How likely is the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week?
Traders are pricing in a nearly 88% probability of a Fed rate hike at its September meeting, according to market data. If confirmed, it would be the first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in three years.
How are Red Sea tensions affecting gold and oil markets?
Houthi forces have reportedly seized key ports in Yemen, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut its East-West pipeline after drone attacks, and a merchant vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz — pushing WTI crude above $107 a barrel. The resulting inflationary pressure from higher crude prices has further boosted rate-hike expectations, which in turn weigh on gold.
What happened to silver, platinum, and palladium?
Silver fell nearly 0.8% to $64 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also declined on Monday. The sell-off was broad-based across precious metals, driven by the same US inflation and Fed rate-hike concerns that pressured gold.
