Gold surges 4.73% weekly as US Fed rate hike bets fade on weak jobs data
Synopsis
A shock US jobs report — 23,000 positions lost against an 80,000 forecast — has done what months of geopolitical noise could not: push gold to a seven-week high with a 4.73% weekly surge. With Fed rate-hike odds now below 50% for September, the next move hinges entirely on the July US inflation print due this week.
Key Takeaways
Gold posted a 4.73 per cent weekly gain as of 8 August , reaching a seven-week high .
MCX gold futures (October) stood at ₹1,51,985 ; silver futures (September) at ₹2,31,804 per kg .
24-carat gold (10 grams) rose from ₹1,42,863 on Monday to ₹1,49,621 on Friday, per IBJA data.
The US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, versus a forecast gain of 80,000 ; prior months were revised down by 1,03,000 jobs .
Market odds for a September Fed rate hike fell to 44 per cent from 58 per cent .
The July US inflation report , due next week, is the next key trigger for gold's direction.
Gold prices posted a 4.73 per cent weekly gain as of 8 August, driven by a weakening US Dollar and a sharply softer-than-expected US employment report that trimmed market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. The rally lifted the yellow metal to a seven-week high, reversing earlier pressure from easing geopolitical risk premiums.
Domestic Prices at a Glance
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (October) edged up 0.11 per cent to ₹1,51,985, while silver futures (September) gained 0.15 per cent to ₹2,31,804 per kg. The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold climbed to ₹1,49,621 on Friday, up from ₹1,42,863 at Monday's market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
What Drove the Rally
The primary catalyst was a US jobs report showing the economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, against forecasts for an addition of around 80,000. Revisions to the previous two months wiped out roughly 1,03,000 jobs, according to an analyst, compounding the downside surprise.
Weaker ADP private payrolls and other employment indicators reinforced the dovish read, cutting the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to approximately 44 per cent from around 58 per cent. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield eased to around 4.60 per cent from an intraday high of 4.68 per cent, creating a supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold and silver.
Geopolitical Backdrop
Gold had begun the week under pressure after geopolitical risk premiums eased following the postponement of a planned US strike on Iran. The metal's sharp reversal after the employment data underscores how rate-path expectations have overtaken geopolitical risk as the primary price driver in the near term. Crude oil remained volatile amid shifting headlines surrounding a potential agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical Levels to Watch
For COMEX gold, commodity analysts place immediate resistance at $4,470–$4,500 and support at $4,330–$4,300. On the MCX, resistance is seen at ₹1,52,200–₹1,52,800, with support at ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700, according to commodity experts.
What to Watch Next
Despite the shift in rate expectations, inflation remains a key risk, and analysts note that the Federal Reserve's next policy move will continue to hinge on incoming inflation and labour-market data. The July US inflation report, due in the coming week, will be closely watched for fresh signals on the Fed's policy trajectory. Investors are also monitoring Federal Reserve communications, Treasury yields, the US Dollar, and developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
Point of View
It confirmed that the metal's near-term driver is the Fed path, not fear. A single jobs print cutting hike odds from 58% to 44% produced a seven-week high; a soft inflation print next week could extend that meaningfully. The risk, however, is symmetric: a hot CPI number would rapidly restore those hike bets and expose the rally as technically fragile at the ₹1,52,000–₹1,52,800 resistance band. Domestic buyers in India, already absorbing gold at historically elevated rupee prices, face the additional variable of currency movement layered on top of COMEX swings.
NationPress
8 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices rise sharply this week?
Gold surged 4.73 per cent on a weekly basis after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July against a forecast gain of 80,000. The data cut the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 44 per cent, weakening the US Dollar and Treasury yields — both tailwinds for gold.
What is the current MCX gold price?
As of 8 August, MCX gold futures (October contract) were trading at ₹1,51,985. The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold stood at ₹1,49,621, according to data from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
What are the key technical levels for gold?
For COMEX gold, analysts place immediate resistance at $4,470–$4,500 and support at $4,330–$4,300. On MCX, resistance is seen at ₹1,52,200–₹1,52,800, with support at ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700.
What is the next major trigger for gold prices?
The July US inflation report, due in the coming week, is the most closely watched upcoming data point. A soft reading could reinforce dovish Fed expectations and extend the gold rally, while a stronger-than-expected figure could revive rate-hike bets and pressure prices.
How did silver perform alongside gold?
Silver futures (September contract) on MCX gained 0.15 per cent to ₹2,31,804 per kg, tracking gold's weekly advance as declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar lifted both precious metals.
