Gold gains 0.86% weekly as US Fed rate-hold bets firm up
Synopsis
Gold's 0.86% weekly gain isn't just a bullion story — it's a referendum on US monetary policy. With core CPI cooling to 2.5% and a string of soft US data prints, the Fed's September pause looks increasingly locked in, and gold's two-month high reflects exactly that repricing. The Strait of Hormuz adds a wildcard that markets cannot ignore.
Key Takeaways
MCX gold futures (October) rose 0.73% to ₹1,54,590 on 15 August , posting a 0.86% weekly gain.
MCX silver futures (September) gained 0.15% to ₹2,36,272 per kg , modestly outperforming gold.
Retail 24-carat gold climbed from ₹1,42,863 on Monday to ₹1,49,621 on Friday, per IBJA data.
US core CPI eased to 2.5% in July, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hold in September.
Gold logged a monthly gain of more than 10% , reaching its highest level in over two months.
Fed July meeting minutes are due on 19 August ; Strait of Hormuz tensions remain a key risk factor.
Gold prices posted a 0.86% weekly gain on the back of a string of weaker-than-expected US economic data, which solidified market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September policy meeting. The rally carried the yellow metal to its highest level in over two months before modest profit-taking trimmed gains late in the week.
Domestic Prices at a Glance
On Friday, 15 August, MCX gold futures (October) rose 0.73% to settle at ₹1,54,590 per 10 grams. MCX silver futures (September) edged up 0.15% to ₹2,36,272 per kg. Meanwhile, the retail price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold stood at ₹1,49,621 on Friday, up sharply from ₹1,42,863 recorded at Monday's market open, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
What Drove the Rally
Multiple tailwinds converged to push bullion higher. Lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar boosted the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Crude oil volatility, driven by lingering Middle East tensions — particularly concerns over the Strait of Hormuz — added a safe-haven premium. Silver outpaced gold modestly over the week, narrowing the gold-silver ratio.
On the inflation front, US core CPI eased to 2.5% in July, remaining broadly contained. That data point reinforced the view that the Fed has little urgency to resume rate hikes, further underpinning precious metals. Gold also logged a monthly gain of more than 10%, according to market participants.
Technical Levels to Watch
Commodity market experts place immediate resistance for COMEX gold at $4,470–$4,500, with support at $4,400–$4,370. For MCX gold, resistance is seen at ₹1,55,500–₹1,56,000 and support at ₹1,53,300–₹1,52,700.
Crude Oil and the Hormuz Factor
Crude oil rebounded sharply from the prior week's sell-off after hopes for a near-term resolution to the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz faded. Both WTI and Brent posted solid weekly gains despite retreating from mid-week highs. Sustained crude volatility is likely to keep safe-haven demand for gold elevated in the near term.
What Markets Are Watching Next
Investors are closely tracking the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting, due for release on 19 August, for clues on the rate trajectory. Any hawkish signals could cap gold's upside, while a dovish tone would likely extend the rally. Developments in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key geopolitical variable for both crude and bullion markets.
Point of View
Not just bullion. The 10% monthly gain is striking and warrants scrutiny: when safe-haven assets run this fast, it often signals that equity markets are more fragile than headline indices suggest. The Strait of Hormuz risk is real but episodic; the stickier driver is the dollar's structural weakness as US data disappoints. If the 19 August Fed minutes strike a more hawkish tone than expected, a sharp reversal in gold is entirely plausible — and retail buyers who chased the rally near ₹1,49,000 could be caught offside.
NationPress
15 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices rise this week?
Gold gained 0.86% on a weekly basis as weaker-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in September. Lower Treasury yields, a softer US dollar, and safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions provided additional support.
What are the current MCX gold and silver prices?
As of 15 August , MCX gold futures (October) stood at ₹1,54,590 , up 0.73% on the day. MCX silver futures (September) were at ₹2,36,272 per kg , up 0.15%. Retail 24-carat gold was priced at ₹1,49,621 per 10 grams , according to IBJA data.
What is the key event gold investors are watching next?
Markets are focused on the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July policy meeting , due on 19 August . A dovish tone could extend gold's rally, while any hawkish signal may trigger profit-taking. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz are also being closely monitored.
What are the technical resistance and support levels for gold?
For COMEX gold, resistance is at $4,470–$4,500 and support at $4,400–$4,370 . For MCX gold, resistance lies at ₹1,55,500–₹1,56,000 and support at ₹1,53,300–₹1,52,700 , according to commodity market experts.
How did US inflation data affect gold prices?
US core CPI eased to 2.5% in July, remaining broadly contained. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its September meeting, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and supporting prices.
