Gold falls 1.86% weekly on hawkish Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
Synopsis
A hawkish debut from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole sent gold tumbling $70 in minutes, erasing a multi-month rally. With US PCE inflation printing at 3.7% and September rate-hike odds jumping to better than 2-in-5, the bullion market's earlier optimism has run headlong into a more-restrictive Fed reality.
Key Takeaways
Gold declined nearly 1.86 per cent over the week ending 29 August .
MCX gold futures (October) fell 1.63 per cent to ₹1,56,400 ; MCX silver (September) shed 1.66 per cent to ₹2,36,651 per kg .
24-carat gold (10 grams) dropped from ₹1,62,603 on Monday to ₹1,59,578 on Friday, per IBJA data.
US PCE inflation for July came in at 3.7 per cent year-on-year , above expectations.
September rate-hike odds rose from roughly 1-in-3 to more than 2-in-5 on the CME FedWatch tool after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address.
Comex Gold support is placed at $4,500–$4,470 ; MCX Gold support at ₹1,56,200–₹1,55,500 .
Gold prices declined nearly 1.86 per cent over the week ending 29 August as markets absorbed hotter-than-expected US inflation data and a hawkish debut address by US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. The dual pressure of sticky inflation and a more-restrictive Fed outlook erased a multi-month rally in bullion that had built momentum earlier in the week.
Weekly Price Movement
On Friday, MCX gold futures expiring in October fell 1.63 per cent, with the contract settling at ₹1,56,400. MCX silver futures for September shed 1.66 per cent, settling at ₹2,36,651 per kg. Spot 24-carat gold (10 grams) was priced at ₹1,59,578 on Friday, down from ₹1,62,603 at Monday's market open, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
What Triggered the Reversal
July's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation came in at 3.7 per cent year-on-year, exceeding market forecasts. Combined with firmer US labour and trade data signalling a stronger-than-expected economy, this shifted market expectations toward the Fed staying restrictive for longer. Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole reinforced that view, sending Comex gold tumbling roughly $70 within minutes before it partially recovered.
Notably, renewed concerns about currency debasement and US Treasury support for long-dated bonds had driven bullion to multi-month highs earlier in the week — gains that were swiftly unwound once the macro picture shifted.
Rate Hike Odds Surge
Odds of a September rate hike jumped from roughly 1-in-3 to more than 2-in-5 on the CME FedWatch tool following Warsh's remarks, while year-end rate expectations climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The repricing rattled risk-sensitive commodities broadly: silver climbed to a 10-week high before surrendering gains multiple times through the week, and copper touched fresh all-time highs before easing back.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
For Comex Gold, analysts place immediate resistance in the $4,600–$4,630 zone, with support at $4,500–$4,470. On the domestic front, MCX Gold faces resistance at ₹1,59,200–₹1,60,000, while the support band lies at ₹1,56,200–₹1,55,500, according to market analysts. Oil also eased from recent highs on fresh signs of diplomatic progress around the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the safe-haven premium slightly.
With rate expectations now at a three-week high and the Fed's next policy meeting approaching, gold's near-term trajectory will hinge on whether US economic data continues to outperform — or shows early signs of softening.
Point of View
And with September hike odds crossing 2-in-5, the 'higher-for-longer' trade is back in play. For Indian investors, the rupee dimension adds a layer of insulation — a weaker rupee can cushion domestic gold prices even when dollar-denominated spot falls. But if US data continues to surprise on the upside, that buffer may not be enough to prevent further MCX corrections. The real watch is whether Warsh's hawkishness reflects a durable Fed consensus or a solo opening gambit.
NationPress
29 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices fall this week?
Gold fell nearly 1.86 per cent over the week ending 29 August after US PCE inflation for July came in at 3.7 per cent year-on-year — above forecasts — and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The combination raised the probability of the Fed staying restrictive for longer, pressuring bullion prices.
What did Fed Chair Kevin Warsh say at Jackson Hole?
Warsh's debut address at the Jackson Hole symposium signalled a hawkish stance on monetary policy, resetting market rate expectations. His remarks sent Comex gold tumbling roughly $70 within minutes, and pushed September rate-hike odds on the CME FedWatch tool from about 1-in-3 to more than 2-in-5.
What are the current MCX gold and silver prices?
As of Friday, 29 August, MCX gold futures (October expiry) were at ₹1,56,400 and MCX silver futures (September expiry) stood at ₹2,36,651 per kg. Spot 24-carat gold (10 grams) was priced at ₹1,59,578, according to IBJA data.
What are the key technical levels for gold?
For Comex Gold, analysts place resistance at $4,600–$4,630 and support at $4,500–$4,470. For MCX Gold, resistance is at ₹1,59,200–₹1,60,000 and support at ₹1,56,200–₹1,55,500, according to market analysts.
How did silver and copper perform this week?
Silver mirrored gold's volatility, climbing to a 10-week high before retreating multiple times through the week. MCX silver futures shed 1.66 per cent on Friday. Copper touched fresh all-time highs during the week before easing back amid the broader commodity pullback.
