The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) scripted a historic victory in the Kerala Assembly elections on 4 May 2025, storming to a staggering 102 seats and sweeping aside the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which was reduced to just 35 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) reopened its account with three seats. Yet, even as the scale of the UDF's triumph sinks in, the question of who will occupy Kerala's Chief Minister chair remains unanswered — and, if Congress history is any guide, the answer may arrive only after at least one dramatic twist.

The Three Names in the Reckoning

The high-stakes race for Kerala's next Chief Minister has now shifted from Thiruvananthapuram to the power corridors of Delhi. Three names are firmly in contention: V.D. Satheesan, the current Leader of Opposition; Ramesh Chennithala, a veteran Congress heavyweight; and K.C. Venugopal, sitting Lok Sabha member from Alappuzha and one of the party high command's most influential national strategists. Few had predicted the scale of the political tsunami that the UDF delivered, and fewer still are willing to predict with certainty who will lead the new government.

A Pattern of Last-Minute Reversals

Old-timers in the Congress are once again reminded that in the party's Kerala politics, the cup has frequently slipped just before it touched the lip. In 2011, minutes before Congress legislators gathered to elect their leader, Chennithala stunned even close aides by walking out before television cameras and announcing he was not in the race — a move that made Oommen Chandy's elevation a mere formality. Three years later, Chennithala returned dramatically to the Cabinet, with Chandy parting with the powerful Home portfolio.

That same year, V.D. Satheesan experienced the bitter taste of political disappointment when, despite expectations, he was left out of Chandy's ministry altogether. A decade earlier, in 2001, it was Oommen Chandy himself who endured a similar slight — widely credited with scripting A.K. Antony's impressive victory, Chandy surprisingly failed to secure a Cabinet berth.

Chennithala's Cruellest Near-Miss: 2021

Perhaps the most painful chapter in this recurring narrative belongs to Chennithala in 2021. As Leader of Opposition, he led the UDF campaign, widely believing the tide had turned against Vijayan. Instead, Vijayan rewrote Kerala's political history by becoming the first Chief Minister to retain power consecutively. To compound the blow, when the opposition leadership was subsequently decided, the party high command chose Satheesan over Chennithala — a decision that reordered the internal hierarchy and set the stage for today's three-way contest.

The Venugopal Question and the Rulebook Dilemma

This time, the suspense carries an additional layer of institutional complexity. Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge had reportedly directed, in March 2025, that sitting Lok Sabha members should not enter state electoral battles. Yet K.C. Venugopal — a sitting MP — is now reportedly among the three names being considered by the high command. Should Venugopal emerge as the choice, Congress may well end up rewriting its own unwritten rulebook overnight. As observers in Thiruvananthapuram note, once one rule bends in Kerala's Congress politics, everyone immediately begins checking whether the next one can too.

What Happens Next

The decision is expected to be finalised in Delhi in the coming days, with the Congress high command holding the final call. Whichever name emerges, the new Chief Minister will inherit a mandate of historic proportions — and the weight of a party that has, more than once, stumbled at the very last step.