Leadership Crisis Looms as Masood Azhar's Eid Message Falls Flat
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
New Delhi, March 19 (NationPress) The leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed, Masood Azhar, has a history of sending messages to his followers before Eid-ul-Fitr. This year, an audio message was shared, but Indian intelligence agencies observed a significant change. In this message, Azhar sounded diminished, and his typically fiery rhetoric against India was notably subdued. Intelligence sources monitoring Jaish-e-Mohammed indicate that internal issues may be brewing within the organization, particularly as Azhar's health seems to be failing, prompting calls for a potential leadership transition.
Within the ranks of the terror group, there is a growing sentiment that the current conditions are hindering operations. An official pointed out that Lashkar-e-Taiba appears to be more active recently, with its leadership engaging with members of Hamas. Conversely, Jaish-e-Mohammed has been conspicuously quiet and absent from significant events, hinting at possible conflicts within its leadership.
Replacing Azhar is considered a complex task, as it might further demoralize the group’s members. However, some argue that a lack of strong leadership could lead to the organization's decline. The behavior of Jaish-e-Mohammed operatives has changed in light of Azhar's weakened state. Although there are launchpads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), it is the Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives who appear to be more active compared to their Jaish counterparts, according to officials.
Initially, there was speculation that Jaish-e-Mohammed might be feigning Azhar's condition to shield him from Indian forces. However, intelligence agencies have confirmed that Azhar's health is indeed precarious, and discussions regarding leadership change are occurring among the top command.
Officials are deliberating whether to appoint a family member of Azhar as the new leader or to choose someone with operational expertise. For the sake of unity among the cadres, a family member might be the preferred choice, yet the group, known for executing deadly attacks, also requires a competent commander.
Abdul Jabbar, responsible for military affairs and overseeing ground operations, is a viable candidate. Azhar's brother, Talha Al Saif, is unlikely to be considered, as his role has mainly involved managing the digital funding aspects of Jaish-e-Mohammed.
Azhar’s son, Abdullah Azhar, has experience in financial operations via digital platforms. Another potential candidate was Yusuf Azhar, Masood Azhar’s brother-in-law, who was in charge of weapons training until his death during Operation Sindoor, a fact confirmed by Masood Azhar himself in an audio message.
Interestingly, Azhar did not mention his brother Abdul Rauf Azhar in the recent audio, raising questions about Rauf's status. His absence has fueled speculation regarding his fate following Operation Sindoor.
Indian intelligence suggests that Azhar may be concealing his brother’s death to maintain morale among the cadres. This could be a strategic move by the top leadership. Given Masood Azhar's deteriorating condition, it appears that, with guidance from the ISI, Jaish-e-Mohammed may soon pursue a leadership change, as the situation is becoming increasingly tense among the ranks.