Sri Lanka's Department of Agriculture on Thursday, 11 June urged farmers across the island to use water sparingly as the country braces for the possible impact of El Nino conditions that could bring lower rainfall and drought risks from as early as July 2025. The advisory comes amid growing meteorological concern that an El Nino event, if it develops, could affect Sri Lanka until as late as February 2027.

What the Agriculture Department Advised

Thushara Wickramaarachchi, director general of the Department of Agriculture, advised farmers to cultivate short-term crop varieties as a precautionary measure during the ongoing Yala farming season. He stressed that farmers should not be unnecessarily alarmed, but must manage water resources carefully and follow guidance from local agriculture officials.

The department said it was actively monitoring the situation and would issue further advice to farmers if weather conditions deteriorated. The Yala season, which runs roughly from May to August, is one of Sri Lanka's two main cultivation periods and is particularly vulnerable to dry spells.

Drought and Rainfall Risks Flagged by Meteorologists

A day earlier, on Wednesday, 10 June, a senior official at the Department of Meteorology warned that Sri Lanka could face significantly lower rainfall and possible drought conditions in July and August if El Nino develops. Ajith Wijemanna, acting director general of the department, said rainfall could fall sharply during those months, raising risks not just for agriculture but also for irrigation, water supply, energy generation, and public health.

Wijemanna noted that El Nino typically lasts nine to twelve months. He also flagged that forecasts indicate an almost 40 per cent chance of the system strengthening into a strong El Nino by November, December, and January.

Global Weather Body Puts Probability at 80-90 Per Cent

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the United Nations weather agency, has assessed an 80 per cent probability that El Nino conditions will emerge between June and August, rising to 90 per cent thereafter. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, speaking at a press conference in Geneva, said, 'We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.'

Saulo noted that the most recent El Nino, in 2023-2024, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024. The WMO said it would carefully monitor conditions in the coming months to inform governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors, adding that advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and limit economic damage.

What This Means for Sri Lanka's Agriculture and Economy

Sri Lanka's agriculture sector, still recovering from the severe economic crisis of 2022, is acutely sensitive to rainfall variability. A prolonged dry spell during the Yala season could reduce paddy and vegetable output, straining food supplies and pushing up domestic prices. Energy generation, heavily reliant on hydropower, would also be at risk if reservoir levels fall.

This comes amid a broader pattern of climate stress across South Asia, where erratic monsoons and extreme weather events have become more frequent. Officials say the key to mitigating damage lies in early action — shifting to drought-tolerant crops, rationing irrigation water, and activating contingency plans before conditions worsen.