Artificial intelligence (AI) could contribute $79.1 billion to India's economy over the next 10 years, according to a new report by the Ayre Think Tank released on 5 November 2026. The analysis ranks India 11th among 56 Commonwealth nations in AI readiness, while simultaneously identifying it as the second-largest economic opportunity in the Commonwealth bloc.

India's AI Opportunity: The Numbers

The projected GDP gain under a moderate scenario stands at $79.1 billion over a decade. The range, however, is wide: a conservative estimate puts the figure at approximately $39.6 billion, while an optimistic scenario stretches the gain to nearly $118.7 billion. The variance reflects the degree to which India can convert infrastructure potential into actual workforce deployment and enterprise adoption.

A key driver behind this optimism is India's demographic weight. The country is home to approximately 382 million people aged between 15 and 29, accounting for more than half of the Commonwealth's total youth population of 732 million. Nearly 89 per cent of young Indians surveyed expressed intent to use AI for education or work within the next year, and more than 60 per cent said they felt confident managing their interactions with AI tools.

Infrastructure Strengths and Access Gaps

India's digital backbone — widespread 4G connectivity and affordable mobile data — has laid strong groundwork for AI adoption at scale. The report credits this infrastructure as a core enabler of the country's readiness ranking.

Yet the same report flags a critical last-mile gap: only about two-thirds of young people own a mobile phone. This means that broad network coverage has not translated uniformly into individual access, leaving a meaningful share of the youth population on the margins of the AI economy.

Labour Market Challenges Cloud the Outlook

The report does not shy away from structural tensions. Approximately 30 per cent of young Indians are outside employment, education, or training — a cohort that risks being bypassed entirely by AI-driven job creation. More significantly, nearly 86 per cent of young workers are employed in the informal sector, where AI tools are least likely to be introduced through formal employer-led pathways.

This combination of high enthusiasm and high informality is, arguably, the central policy challenge the report surfaces.

Government Initiatives to Bridge the Skills Gap

Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, highlighted recent policy moves in India's favour. He noted that in August 2026, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans to train 10 million young people in AI skills within a year. The following month, the government launched new AI training programmes in partnership with Intel India to equip young people with practical skills for emerging technology-driven roles.

'India is already taking major steps to turn its technological strengths into employment opportunities,' Ayre said. 'These initiatives demonstrate how India is working to turn its enormous enthusiasm for AI into new employment opportunities, stronger businesses and economic growth.'

Five Policy Priorities for Maximising AI Benefits

The report identifies five priorities for governments seeking to maximise AI's economic dividend: expanding affordable access to technology; promoting practical, skills-based education; strengthening pathways from training to employment; developing AI tools suited to local languages and needs; and ensuring safeguards that allow users to challenge automated decisions. For India, the last two carry particular weight given the country's linguistic diversity and the scale of its informal workforce.

With global competition for AI talent and investment intensifying, the report's findings suggest India's window to capitalise on its demographic and digital advantages remains open — but will require sustained, targeted policy action to stay that way.