Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser on Monday, 5 October 2026 warned that global oil stockpiles have fallen to dangerously low levels, leaving energy markets acutely exposed to further supply disruptions unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Nasser made the remarks at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, delivering one of the most pointed assessments yet of the fragility underpinning global crude and fuel markets.

The Inventory Crisis in Numbers

“Oil inventories that normally cushion markets against shocks have become scarily thin,” Nasser said, framing the depletion not as a cyclical blip but as a structural vulnerability. He cautioned that pressure on both crude oil and refined fuel markets is likely to intensify until confidence returns and shipping through the Hormuz corridor normalises. Critically, Nasser estimated that rebuilding depleted inventories could take as long as two years even after the waterway reopens fully — a timeline that underscores the depth of the supply hole.

Why Emergency Reserve Releases Fall Short

Major economies had announced plans to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves in the days before Nasser’s remarks, aiming to contain rising fuel prices. However, Nasser argued these releases offer only short-term relief and do not address the underlying supply-demand imbalances in global energy markets. This is not the first time strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns have been deployed as a price-stabilisation tool — a similar coordinated release was executed during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine supply shock — but critics have consistently noted that such moves merely defer the reckoning.

Hormuz Disruptions and Gulf Producers’ Response

The Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global energy trade — has faced significant disruptions following conflict triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran earlier this year. Gulf producers, however, have stepped up efforts to restore export flows, with crude shipments reportedly approaching pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have increasingly leaned on their own tanker fleets to move crude through the waterway.

Saudi Aramco has also ramped up exports from its Ras Tanura terminal and restored flows on its East-West pipeline to approximately 80% of capacity following a recent attack that temporarily disrupted operations. Despite higher export volumes, markets continue to price in ongoing geopolitical and security risks across the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.

Brent at $100 Signals Persistent Risk Premium

International oil benchmark Brent crude has traded around the $100-per-barrel mark over the past month, reflecting persistent market anxiety over potential supply interruptions. The three-digit price level signals that traders are far from convinced that the Hormuz situation is resolved, even as Gulf producers move to reassure buyers. For major oil-importing nations — including India, one of the world’s largest crude consumers — a sustained $100-plus environment poses meaningful inflationary and fiscal risks.

What to Watch Next

The pace of Hormuz normalisation and any further attacks on Gulf infrastructure will be the primary variables to track. Nasser’s two-year inventory rebuild estimate suggests that even an optimistic reopening scenario leaves markets exposed well into 2027. Energy ministers and central banks in import-dependent economies will be monitoring each data point closely, and any fresh security incident in the Persian Gulf could rapidly push Brent beyond current levels.