The global semiconductor market is projected to surpass $1.6 trillion in 2026 — more than 1.5 times the forecast issued earlier this year — as surging investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure rewrites industry expectations, according to a report by Korea Eximbank's research centre based on analysis from global market research firms including TrendForce.

A Forecast Rewritten Upward

As recently as last year, analysts expected the global chip market to cross the $1 trillion threshold only by 2030. That timeline has been compressed dramatically as major US and Chinese hyperscalers — companies operating large-scale data centres — rapidly scaled up AI infrastructure spending. The revised outlook now sees the market reaching approximately $2 trillion by 2030, reflecting sustained structural demand rather than a one-off spike.

Memory Chips at the Centre of the Surge

Memory chips produced by Samsung Electronics Co. and SK hynix Inc. are expected to account for more than half of the global semiconductor market, driven by the massive data volumes processed by AI systems. Prices of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory chips stood at $25 and $30.5, respectively, as of the end of last month — up 4.4-fold and ninefold, respectively, from a year earlier. Memory chip prices are expected to stabilise from next year, the report noted, but market growth is forecast to continue on steady demand.

Big Tech Locks In Long-Term Supply Deals

'Big tech companies are pursuing long-term supply agreements with memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which will help stabilise the semiconductor industry compared with the past,' the Korea Eximbank report said. Industry sources noted that with AI investment by major technology firms accelerating and AI services spreading widely, it will be difficult for the memory chip market to lose momentum in the near term. This comes amid calls from some quarters of the AI industry to slow development over concerns about losing control of the technology — though those calls have not visibly dampened capital expenditure among hyperscalers.

Industry Employment and Wages on the Rise

The human side of the semiconductor boom is also visible in workforce data. Employment in the chip industry reached 174,000 in the first quarter of 2026, up 15 percent from 152,000 in the first quarter of 2018, when the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) began compiling related data. The average monthly salary for workers in the sector was 4.32 million won (approximately $3,100) in the first half of this year, up 3.1 percent from a year earlier, according to the Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF). The annual wage increase was largely attributable to sharply higher bonuses at semiconductor companies.

What to Watch Next

The trajectory of AI infrastructure investment by US and Chinese hyperscalers will be the key variable shaping chip demand through the rest of the decade. Any meaningful pullback in AI capex — whether due to regulatory pressure, geopolitical restrictions, or a genuine AI development slowdown — could test the durability of the revised forecasts. For now, however, the data points firmly in one direction: chips are the defining commodity of the AI era.