Gold prices declined 4.63 per cent during the week ended 27 June, marking the fourth consecutive weekly fall as a stronger US dollar and persistent expectations of elevated US interest rates continued to weigh on the precious metal. The slide pushed bullion to its lowest level since November 2025 at one point during the week before a partial recovery on Friday.

Friday Rebound and Current Levels

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) gained 0.75 per cent on Friday, while silver futures (July) surged more than 1 per cent after US inflation data tempered immediate concerns about a Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold futures currently stand at Rs 1,44,199 per 10 grams, while silver futures are at Rs 2,22,100 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,39,878 on Thursday, down sharply from Rs 1,46,664 recorded at Monday's market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

What Is Driving the Decline

Elevated US Treasury yields have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, drawing capital away from bullion markets. A stronger dollar compounds the pressure by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Despite the week's rebound, gold has lost roughly 29 per cent from its record high of $5,594.82 seen on 29 January 2026. This is the fourth straight week of losses — a run not seen since early 2025 — underscoring how sharply the rate-hike narrative has repriced the metal.

Notably, volatility in technology stocks and concerns around artificial intelligence valuations prompted some investors to seek safe-haven assets during the week, providing partial support for gold's Friday recovery.

Inflation Data and Fed Rate Outlook

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.4 per cent in May, easing immediate rate-hike concerns and triggering Friday's rebound in bullion. However, markets continue to price in a 64 per cent probability of further monetary tightening in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This lingering rate-hike probability means the relief rally may be short-lived unless upcoming US data — particularly jobs and CPI prints — come in softer than expected.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

On COMEX, gold continues to trade with a corrective bias, hovering above the $4,000 support area. Immediate resistance is placed at $4,200–$4,240, followed by $4,360–$4,400, according to analysts.

For MCX Gold, immediate resistance is at Rs 1,46,000–Rs 1,47,000, followed by Rs 1,49,000–Rs 1,50,000. On the downside, Rs 1,40,000–Rs 1,39,000 remains the immediate support zone. For MCX Silver, resistance is placed at Rs 2,30,000–Rs 2,32,000, while a break below Rs 2,10,000 could extend the decline toward Rs 2,00,000–Rs 1,98,000, analysts noted.

With the Fed's September meeting now firmly in focus, gold's trajectory will hinge on whether US inflation and employment data give policymakers room to pause — or push them toward another hike.