India launches AI-driven hyper-local weather forecast products for 16 states
Synopsis
India has launched its first-ever AI-driven weather forecasting system, offering monsoon predictions up to four weeks in advance for 16 states and hyper-local 1-km resolution rainfall forecasts for Uttar Pradesh. For millions of farmers dependent on kharif crop planning, the timing — just ahead of the 2025 southwest monsoon — could not be more consequential.
Key Takeaways
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) launched two AI-driven weather forecast products on Tuesday, 13 May 2025 .
The AI-enabled Monsoon Advance Forecasting System provides probabilistic forecasts every Wednesday , up to four weeks in advance, covering 16 states and more than 3,000 sub-districts .
A pilot High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh generates forecasts at 1-km spatial resolution up to 10 days ahead.
Products were jointly developed by IMD , IITM Pune , and NCMRWF , and launched by MoS Dr.
The systems are designed to serve farmers, disaster managers, urban planners, and infrastructure sectors with actionable, location-specific data.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) on Tuesday, 13 May 2025, launched two advanced weather forecast products designed to deliver hyper-local, impact-based, and AI-driven weather services across India. The launch marks the country's first-ever Artificial Intelligence-driven weather forecasting system by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), signalling a decisive shift from conventional forecasting toward precision, decision-support services.
What Was Launched
Union Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Dr. Jitendra Singh, unveiled the two products, which have been jointly developed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). The minister described the systems as a major departure from conventional weather forecasting, offering precise, location-specific, and actionable information to farmers, administrators, disaster managers, and citizens.
AI-Enabled Monsoon Advance Forecasting System
The first product is an AI-enabled Monsoon Advance Forecasting System that will provide probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday, up to four weeks in advance. The system is designed to support farmers across 16 states and more than 3,000 sub-districts through the dissemination framework of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare. It combines AI-based forecasting models, extended range prediction systems, and statistical techniques to generate operationally useful forecasts for agricultural planning and preparedness. Farmers will reportedly be able to make more informed decisions on sowing, irrigation, crop protection, and harvest planning with far greater local precision.
High-Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh
The second product is a High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh, launched as a pilot service capable of generating rainfall forecasts at a 1-km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance. The system employs advanced AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates data from Automatic Rain Gauges (ARGs), Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), Doppler Weather Radars, and satellite-based rainfall datasets. According to the official statement, the service is expected to benefit agriculture, water resources, renewable energy, urban planning, disaster management, and infrastructure sectors.
A Decade of Transformation
Dr. Singh noted that India's weather forecasting capabilities have undergone a major transformation over the last decade, with technology, data integration, and advanced modelling significantly improving forecast accuracy and public trust in IMD services. This launch builds on that momentum, with the Uttar Pradesh pilot potentially serving as a template for national rollout. Notably, the 1-km resolution forecast is among the most granular operational rainfall products attempted by any national meteorological agency in South Asia.
What Comes Next
While the Uttar Pradesh high-resolution service is currently a pilot, officials have indicated the framework could be extended to other states depending on performance outcomes. The monsoon forecasting system, however, is already operational across 16 states. With the 2025 southwest monsoon season approaching, the timing of the launch is significant for millions of farmers who depend on reliable precipitation data for kharif crop planning.
Point of View
One of India's most agriculturally dense states, is a smart proof-of-concept choice. However, the gap between a ministerial launch and a farmer in Bundelkhand actually receiving and acting on that data remains vast. The dissemination framework through the Ministry of Agriculture is the critical variable here, not the algorithm. Past IMD upgrades have improved accuracy at the macro level while rural awareness lagged. If MoES can demonstrate that these forecasts change on-ground decisions — not just headline accuracy scores — this could genuinely redefine India's climate resilience infrastructure.
NationPress
2 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the two weather forecast products launched by the Ministry of Earth Sciences?
The two products are the AI-enabled Monsoon Advance Forecasting System and the High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh. The first provides probabilistic monsoon forecasts up to four weeks in advance for 16 states, while the second generates 1-km resolution rainfall forecasts up to 10 days ahead as a pilot service.
Which states and districts are covered by the new monsoon forecasting system?
The AI-enabled Monsoon Advance Forecasting System covers 16 states and more than 3,000 sub-districts across India. Forecasts are disseminated through the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare's existing framework.
How does the Uttar Pradesh rainfall forecast system work?
The High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh uses AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates data from Automatic Rain Gauges, Automatic Weather Stations, Doppler Weather Radars, and satellite-based rainfall datasets to produce forecasts at 1-km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance.
Who developed these AI weather forecasting systems?
The systems were jointly developed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
How will farmers benefit from the new weather forecast products?
Farmers across 16 states will receive precise, sub-district-level forecasts to support decisions on sowing, irrigation, crop protection, and harvest planning. The 1-km resolution pilot in Uttar Pradesh further enables highly localised agricultural and water resource planning.
