US-China Trade Plummets to 2% of Global Market as Decoupling Intensifies: Insights from Recent Report

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US-China Trade Plummets to 2% of Global Market as Decoupling Intensifies: Insights from Recent Report

Synopsis

In an alarming trend, trade between the US and China has fallen to just 2% of global trade—a significant drop from 2.7% in 2024. This shift highlights the deepening economic decoupling between the two superpowers, even as globalisation remains resilient.

Key Takeaways

US-China trade has fallen to 2% of global trade.
Decline from 2.7% in 2024 reflects deepening economic decoupling.
Globalisation remains stable despite geopolitical tensions.
AI-related goods significantly contribute to global trade growth.
Projected moderate growth in goods trade through 2029.

New Delhi, March 12 (NationPress) Trade relations between the United States and China have plummeted to a mere 2 percent of global trade, a decrease from 2.7 percent in 2024, according to a recent report released on Thursday.

The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 underscores the ongoing decoupling between these two economic giants, even amid robust globalisation.

Produced by DHL in collaboration with New York University Stern School of Business, the report reveals that global economic connections remain resilient despite escalating geopolitical frictions, tariffs, and uncertainties surrounding international trade policies.

Historically, trade between the United States and China peaked at 3.6 percent of world trade in 2015.

However, this figure has consistently declined, falling to 2.7 percent in 2024, and further down to approximately 2 percent during the initial three quarters of 2025.

Investment across borders between the two nations is even more diminished, representing less than 1 percent of global investment flows.

Despite the weakening relationships between Washington and Beijing, the report asserts that globalisation remains stable.

As of 2025, the worldwide level of connectedness is about 25 percent, matching the all-time high seen in 2022.

This index evaluates international movements of trade, capital, information, and people on a range from 0 to 100.

John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, highlighted that the findings indicate nations and businesses are striving to maintain international relationships even in uncertain times.

He emphasized that significant global challenges—such as poverty and climate change—demand cooperation and global cooperation.

The report also indicates that global trade saw faster growth in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the unusual variations during the Covid-19 pandemic.

This surge was primarily driven by a rise in shipments in anticipation of imminent tariff increases in the United States and a burgeoning demand for products related to artificial intelligence.

The World Trade Organisation reported that AI-linked goods constituted around 42 percent of the increase in global goods trade during the first three quarters of 2025.

Looking forward, the report anticipates continued growth in global trade, albeit at a moderate rate.

Goods trade is expected to expand at an average annual rate of approximately 2.6 percent through 2029, aligning broadly with trends over the past decade.

Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern, noted that the political discourse surrounding globalisation often seems more dramatic than the actual shifts in global business flows.

Point of View

This report underscores the critical shift in US-China relations and the impact on global trade dynamics. While the decline in trade is concerning, it is vital to recognize that globalisation, in general, continues to thrive, necessitating careful navigation of these complex economic relationships.
NationPress
28 Jun 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current percentage of US-China trade in global trade?
As of early 2025, trade between the United States and China accounts for just 2% of global trade.
How has US-China trade changed since 2015?
US-China trade peaked at 3.6% of world trade in 2015, but has steadily declined to 2% in early 2025.
What is the expected growth rate of global goods trade?
Global goods trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of about 2.6% through 2029.
What factors are contributing to the decline in US-China trade?
The decline is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and the ongoing decoupling between the two economies.
How significant is the role of AI-related goods in global trade?
AI-related products accounted for approximately 42% of global goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025.
Nation Press
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