An estimated 6.2 crore Bangladeshis are hovering on the edge of poverty — technically above the official poverty line yet one economic shock away from falling below it — as stagnant wages, persistent inflation, and weak social protection erode household resilience, according to a new report by The Business Standard, a Bangladesh-based publication. The report identifies this vulnerable segment as an emerging 'new poor' class.

Scale of the Crisis

The report cites a World Bank assessment projecting Bangladesh's poverty rate could climb to 22.5 per cent in 2026, up sharply from 18.7 per cent in 2022. Extreme poverty, measured against the international $3-a-day threshold, may have risen to 10.1 per cent from 5.9 per cent over the same period, according to that assessment.

Inflation Outpacing Wages for Nearly Five Years

Inflation has reportedly outpaced wage growth for 56 consecutive months through September 2026 — a streak that has forced many families to cut food quality, delay medical care, or sell productive assets just to meet immediate needs. 'When prices rise faster than earnings, families lose purchasing power even when nominal wages increase,' the report noted.

A separate official survey conducted in October found that 47.42 per cent of households borrowed money to cover everyday living expenses, with rural borrowing even higher at 51.91 per cent. Average monthly household expenditure stood at Tk 35,311 against an average monthly income of only Tk 33,513 — a gap that leaves families structurally in deficit.

Employment Barriers and Structural Constraints

The report pointed to weak private investment, energy constraints, and regulatory uncertainty as key barriers to business expansion and job creation. Young people, it said, face underemployment or work that does not match their qualifications, while women encounter additional barriers to secure, adequately paid employment.

The publication also flagged the banking sector as a systemic risk, warning that poor loan recovery, preferential lending, and inadequate accountability divert resources away from productive enterprises. 'The costs of financial misconduct should not be passed on to businesses, workers, and taxpayers,' the report stated, framing banking reform as integral to the broader employment and development agenda.

Key Recommendations

The report urged the Bangladeshi government to release a quarterly dashboard by October 2027, covering data on poverty, real wages, decent employment, household debt, and social protection coverage — disaggregated by sex, age, location, and income group. It called for publicly accessible data and transparent methodologies to enable independent scrutiny.

With inflation showing little sign of easing and banking reform still in early stages, the trajectory of Bangladesh's 'new poor' class will likely depend on whether structural economic reforms gain traction in the months ahead.